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1、南水北調(diào)中線總干渠冰情預(yù)測模型參數(shù)敏感性分析及率定 摘要：南水北調(diào)中線工程黃河以北總干渠冬季由于受氣溫的影響，將有不同程度的冰情產(chǎn)生，總干渠將處于無冰、流冰、冰蓋下輸水等多種復(fù)雜運行狀態(tài)，運行不當(dāng)則可能發(fā)生冰塞、冰壩危害。為了更準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測冰情，文章利用詳細(xì)熱量交換法對不同條件下渠道內(nèi)一維冰蓋生消進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬，根據(jù)2012年冬季的冰清觀測結(jié)果以均方根差最小的原則率定模型參數(shù)。隨后通過改變反射系數(shù)α、云量C、虛擬冰蓋厚度Δh、風(fēng)速Va、折減系數(shù)Cc及Ce、初始水溫等分析冰蓋厚度對于模型參數(shù)的敏感性。仿真結(jié)果顯示，模型參
2、數(shù)中反射系數(shù)α、虛擬冰蓋厚度Δh這兩個參數(shù)對冰蓋厚度影響較大，氣溫數(shù)據(jù)中云量C對冰厚結(jié)果影響較大，且在高云量區(qū)域敏感性為極敏感，這些規(guī)律可以為寒區(qū)渠道系統(tǒng)冰情預(yù)測模型的開發(fā)及率定提供參考?！ ￡P(guān)鍵詞：冰情預(yù)測；南水北調(diào)中線工程；冰水力學(xué)；敏感性；參數(shù)率定 中圖分類號：TV143文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A文章編號： 16721683（2016）06006807 Parametersensitivityanalysisandcalibrationoftheicecoverperditionmodelofthemaincanal
3、ofthemiddlerouteofSouthtoNorthWaterTransferProject10 MOZhenning1，2，GUANGuanghua1，LIUDazhi1，HUANGKai1 （1.StateKeyLaboratoryofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineeringScience，WuhanUniversity，Wuhan430072，China；2.GuangxiWater&PowerDesignInstitute，Nanjing530023，China
4、） Abstract：Becauseofthelowtemperatureinwinter，differentdegreeoficecoverwillgrowinthemaincanalofthemiddlerouteofSouthtoNorthWaterTransferProjectinthenorthoftheYellowRiver.Themaincanalwouldbeoperatedunderdifferentmannersuchasicefree，driftingiceandicecovermode，im
5、properoperationwillleadtodisasterlikeicejamandicedam.Inordertoanticipatetheformingprocedureoficecoverinmaincanals，amathematicalmodelinthispaperwasusedtosimulatethegrowthanddecayoficecoverunderdifferentconditionbycalculatingthedetailedheatexchange.Accordingtothe
6、fieldobservingdataoficecoverin2012，asetofparameterswerecalibratedwhichsimulationresultbyminimizingthequadraticerrorwithmeasuredicethickness.Thenthesensitivityofsixparametersintheicepredictionmodelwasevaluated：reflectioncoefficientα，cloudinessC，virtualicethickne
7、ssΔh，windspeedVa，thereductionfactorCcandCe，initialwatertemperature.Theresultsshowedthatthereflectioncoefficientα，cloudinessCandvirtualicethicknessΔharemoresensitivetothepredictionoficethickness.Whenthevalueof10cloudinessishigh，thesensitivityofitisextremelyhigh.
8、Theseresultscanbeusedtodevelopedandcalibratetheicecoverpredictionmodelofcanalsysteminclodregion. Keywords：icecoverprediction；themiddlerouteofSouthtoNorthWaterDiversionProje
