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1、AppliedOceanResearch31(2009)179185ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectAppliedOceanResearchjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/aporFuzzyinferencesystemfortheriskassessmentofliquefiednaturalgascarriersduringloading/offloadingatterminalsTarekElsayedDepartmentofMarineEngineering,ArabAcadem
2、yforScience&Technology&MaritimeTransport,Alexandria,EgyptarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Amultipleattributeriskassessmentapproachusingafuzzyinferencesystemisdevelopedinthiswork.Received12September2008Theapproachisbasedontheuseoffuzzysets,arulebaseandafuzzyinferenceengine.TraditionalinputRec
3、eivedinrevisedformprobabilitiesandconsequencesusedinriskassessmentarerepresentedbyfuzzysetstotakeintoaccount26May2009uncertaintiesassociatedwiththeassignmentoftheirvalues.TheoutputriskvaluescanbepresentedasAccepted14August2009crispvaluesorfuzzysetswithassociateddegreeofmembership.Thefuzzyinfe
4、rencesystemFISisusedAvailableonline8September2009asanalternativeapproachtoqualitativeriskmatrixtechniquescurrentlyusedinmanyindustriesandbyshipclassificationsocieties.Twoapproachesforfuzzyinferenceareadopted.TheseincludetheMamdaniKeywords:approachinwhichoutputriskvaluesarefuzzysetsandtheSugen
5、omethodoffuzzyinference,inwhichMultipleattributeRiskassessmentoutputriskvaluesareconstantorlinear.FuzzysetsTheuseofafuzzysetapproachisparticularlysuitedforhandlingmultipleattributeriskproblemswithFuzzyinferencesystemimprecisedata.Itimprovesuponexistingqualitativemethodsandallowstherankingofri
6、skalternativesLNGshipsbasedonaunifiedfuzzyriskindexmeasure.ResultsshowthatwhiletheMamdanimethodisintuitiveLNGterminalsandwellsuitedtohumaninput,theSugenomethodiscomputationallymoreefficientandguaranteescontinuityofthefinalriskoutputsurface.Resultsalsoshowthatcomputedriskvaluesusingafuzzyriski
7、ndexmeasureareconsistentwiththoseobtainedusingaqualitativeriskmatrixapproach.Theproposedmethodologyisalsoapplicabletoothershipoperatingmodessuchastransitinopenseaand/orentering/leavingport.AcasestudyforaliquefiednaturalgasLNGshiploading/offlo
