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1、TheNatureofEconometricsandEconomicDatahapter1discussesthescopeofeconometricsandraisesgeneralissuesthatariseCintheapplicationofeconometricmethods.Section1.3examinesthekindsofdatasetsthatareusedinbusiness,economics,andothersocialsciences.Section1.4providesanintui
2、tivediscussionofthedifficultiesassociatedwiththeinferenceofcausalityinthesocialsciences.1.1WhatIsEconometrics?Imaginethatyouarehiredbyyourstategovernmenttoevaluatetheeffectivenessofapub-liclyfundedjobtrainingprogram.Supposethisprogramteachesworkersvariouswaysto
3、usecomputersinthemanufacturingprocess.Thetwenty-weekprogramofferscoursesdur-ingnonworkinghours.Anyhourlymanufacturingworkermayparticipate,andenrollmentinallorpartoftheprogramisvoluntary.Youaretodeterminewhat,ifany,effectthetrain-ingprogramhasoneachworker’ssubse
4、quenthourlywage.Now,supposeyouworkforaninvestmentbank.Youaretostudythereturnsondif-ferentinvestmentstrategiesinvolvingshort-termU.S.treasurybillstodecidewhethertheycomplywithimpliedeconomictheories.Thetaskofansweringsuchquestionsmayseemdauntingatfirst.Atthispoi
5、nt,youmayonlyhaveavagueideaofthekindofdatayouwouldneedtocollect.Bytheendofthisintroductoryeconometricscourse,youshouldknowhowtouseeconometricmethodstoformallyevaluateajobtrainingprogramortotestasimpleeconomictheory.Econometricsisbaseduponthedevelopmentofstatist
6、icalmethodsforestimatingeconomicrelationships,testingeconomictheories,andevaluatingandimplementinggovernmentandbusinesspolicy.Themostcommonapplicationofeconometricsistheforecastingofsuchimportantmacroeconomicvariablesasinterestrates,inflationrates,andgrossdomes
7、ticproduct.Whereasforecastsofeconomicindicatorsarehighlyvisibleandoftenwidelypublished,econometricmethodscanbeusedineconomicareasthathavenothingtodowithmacroeconomicforecasting.Forexample,wewillstudytheeffectsofpoliticalcampaignexpendituresonvotingoutcomes.Wewi
8、llconsidertheeffectofschoolspendingonstudentperformanceinthefieldofeducation.Inaddition,wewilllearnhowtouseeconometricmethodsforforecastingeconomictimeseries.2Chapter1TheNat
