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1、安全區(qū)域止損法（中英文對照）Onceinatrade,whereshouldyouputyourstop?Thisisoneofthehardestquestionsintechnicalanalysis.Afteransweringit,you’llfaceanevenharderone-whenandwheretomovethatstopwiththepassageoftime.Putastoptoocloseandit’llgetwhackedbysomemeaninglessintradayswing.Putittoofar,andyou’llhaveveryskimpy
2、protection.一旦進(jìn)場了，你應(yīng)該在哪里止損？這是技術(shù)分析最難回答的問題。就算回答了，你還要面對更難的問題——隨著時(shí)間的推移，止損要如何移動(dòng)？如果止損太近了，市場沒有意義的波動(dòng)也會(huì)把它掃掉。如果止損放的太遠(yuǎn)了，保護(hù)又不夠。TheParabolicSystem,describedinTradingforaLiving,triedtotacklethisproblembymovingstopsclosertothemarketeachday,acceleratingwheneverastockoracommodityreachedanewextreme.Thetroublewi
3、thParabolicwasthatitkeptmovingevenifthemarketstayedflatandoftengothitbymeaninglessnoise.我在《以交易為生》中談過拋物線系統(tǒng)，想通過每天移動(dòng)止損的方式解決這個(gè)問題，當(dāng)股票或商品期貨到達(dá)極限價(jià)格時(shí)更好用。拋物線的問題是，即使市場是橫盤，或者是無意義的波動(dòng)，系統(tǒng)也總是在動(dòng)，容易被掃止損。Theconceptofsignalandnoisestatesthatthetrendisthesignalandthenontrendingmotionisthenoise.Astockorafuturemayb
4、einanuptrendoradowntrend,butthenoiseofitsrandomchopcanobscureitssignal.Tradingattherightedgeishardbecausethenoiselevelishigh.IdevelopedSafeZonetotrailpriceswithstopstightenoughtoprotectcapitalbutremoteenoughtokeepclearofmostrandomfluctuations.信號的意思是說趨勢就是信號，噪音的意思是說沒有方向的波動(dòng)叫噪音。股票或期貨也許上漲或下跌，但是隨機(jī)的
5、噪音會(huì)讓趨勢變得模糊。正確交易很難，因?yàn)樵胍籼?。我發(fā)明的安全區(qū)域能跟蹤價(jià)格，用止損保護(hù)資金，還能遠(yuǎn)離大部分隨機(jī)波動(dòng)。Engineersdesignfilterstosuppressnoiseandallowthesignaltocomethrough.Ifthetrendisthesignal,thenthecountertrendmotionisthenoise.Whenthetrendisup,wecandefinenoiseasthatpartofeachday’srangethatprotrudesbelowthepreviousday’slow.Whenthetren
6、disdown,wecandefinenoiseasthatpartofeachday’srangethatprotrudesabovethepreviousday’shigh.SafeZonemeasuresmarketnoiseandplacesstopsatamultipleofnoiselevelawayfromthemarket.工程師發(fā)明了濾網(wǎng)在過濾噪音，讓信號通過。如果趨勢就是信號，那么逆勢的波動(dòng)就是噪音。當(dāng)趨勢上漲時(shí)，每天波動(dòng)超過前一天最低點(diǎn)就是噪音。當(dāng)趨勢下跌，每天波動(dòng)超過前一天最高點(diǎn)就是噪音。安全區(qū)域計(jì)算噪音，讓止損點(diǎn)遠(yuǎn)離噪音。Wemayusetheslope
7、ofa22-dayEMAtodefinethetrend.Youneedtochoosethelengthofthelookbackperiodformeasuringnoiselevel.Ithastobelongenoughtotrackrecentbehaviorbutshortenoughtoberelevantforcurrenttrading.Aperiodof10to20daysworkswell,orwecanmakeourlookbackperiod100day
