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1、ModellingtTheMoralDimensionoOfDecisionsKatieSteele,UniversityofQueenslandInthispaperweexploretheconnectionsbetweenethicsanddecisiontheory.Inparticular,weconsiderthequestionofwhetherdecisiontheorycarrieswithitabiastowardsconsequentialistethicaltheories.We
2、arguethatalthoughthereisasenseinwhichotherethicaltheoriescanbeaccommodatedbystandarddecisiontheory,theseethicaltheoriesarenotnaturallysuitedtotheprojectofmaximisingexpectedutility.Inparticular,wearguethatthemotivationfortheotherethicaltheoriesandthepsych
3、ologicalprocessesoftheagentswhosubscribetothoseethicaltheoriesarelostorpoorlyrepresentedintheresultingmodels.1.INTRODUCTIONDecisiontheoryhastwocomponents:probabilitiesandutilities.Fromtheformalpointofview,thesetwocomponentsplaysymmetricalrolesindecisiont
4、heory.Foreachact–statepair(oroutcome)weassignaprobabilityandautility,thenwemultiplythesetogetherandsumtheproductsacrosseachact.Theresultingsumwecalltheexpectedutility.Standarddecisiontheorythentellsustochoosetheactwiththegreatestexpectedutility(ifthereis
5、suchanact).Thisisallveryfamiliar.Whatwedrawattentiontoisthat,intermsoftheformaldecisioncalculus,probabilitiesandutilitiesaretreatedsimilarly—theyarejusttworealnumberstobemultipliedandthenadded.Thesimilaritiesbetweenprobabilitiesandutilitiesrunevendeeper.
6、Bothareconstrainedbyaxiomatictheories:probabilitiesbytheKolmogorov(1956)axiomsandutilitiesbyvonNeumann-Morgenstern(1944)utilitytheory.Theseaxiomatictheoriesplaceminimalstructuralconstraintsonprobabilitiesandutilities.NotesOnemightargueaboutwhethertheresp
7、ectiveaxiomsareinfactminimalconstraints.Wewon’tpursuesuchissueshere.Ourinterestliesinwhatotherconstraintsweneedinadditiontotheaxioms.(Otherrepresentationtheorems,suchasSavage’s(1954)expectedutilitytheory,explicitlybindtogetherbeliefandpreference,andthust
8、heresultingprobabilityandutilityfunctions.)Whicheverwaywejustifytheirconnectiontobelieforpreference,tTheaxiomsensurethattherearenoviolationsofconsistency.Forexample,theKolmogorovaxiomsruleoutprobabilitiesthatdon’tsumto1,so
