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1、ThispageintentionallyleftblankBAYESIANDECISIONANALYSISBayesiandecisionanalysissupportsprincipleddecisionmakingincomplexbutstructureddomains.Thefocusofthistextbookisonthefaithfulrepresentationandconjugateanalysesofdiscretedecisionproblems.Ittakesthereaderfromaformalanalysisofsimple
2、decisionproblemstoacarefulanalysisofthesometimesverycomplexanddatarichstructuresconfrontedbypractitioners.Thebookcontainsbasicmaterialonsubjectiveprobabilitytheoryandmultiattributeutilitytheory,eventanddecisiontrees,Bayesiannetworks,in?uencediagramsandcausalBayesiannetworks.Theaut
3、hordemonstrateswhenandhowthetheorycanbesuccessfullyappliedtoagivendecisionproblem,howdatacanbesampledandexpertjudgementselicitedtosupportthisanalysis,andwhenandhowaneffectiveBayesiandecisionanalysiscanbeimplemented.Evolvingfromathird-yearundergraduatecoursetaughtbytheauthoroverman
4、yyears,allofthematerialinthisbookwillbeaccessibletoastudentwhohascompletedintroductorycoursesinprobabilityandmathematicalstatistics.jimq.smithisaProfessorofStatisticsattheUniversityofWarwick.BAYESIANDECISIONANALYSISPrinciplesandPracticeJIMQ.SMITHUniversityofWarwickCAMBRIDGEUNIVERS
5、ITYPRESSCambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore,S?oPaulo,Delhi,Dubai,Tokyo,MexicoCityCambridgeUniversityPressTheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCB28RU,UKPublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYorkwww.cambridge.orgInformationonthistitle:www.cambri
6、dge.org/9780521764544?J.Q.Smith2010Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexceptionandtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.Firstpublished2010PrintedintheUnitedKingdom
7、attheUniversityPress,CambridgeAcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibraryLibraryofCongressCataloguinginpublicationDataSmith,J.Q.,1953–Bayesiandecisionanalysis:principlesandpractice/JimQ.Smith.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-521-76454
8、-41.Bayesianstatisticaldecisionth
