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1、June20,201805:36AMGMT37AsiaEMEquityStrategyBearmarketbeckonsWemakefurthersignificantcutstoourindextargetsasmacropressurepointsbuildmaterially.WeseedownsidefromhereforallourcoveragemarketsneartermwiththeHangSengparticularlyatrisk.OurnewbasecaseTargetPricesimply3%to8%downs
2、idefromcurrentlevelsandthatfromthelateJanpeaks,EM,HSCEIandCSI300shouldallenterbearmarketterritory(drawdown>20%)whileHangSeng,Topix,APxJandMSCIChinacomeclose.WecontinuetofavourMSCIChinaoverMSCIEM,stayneutralEMversusJapan,arenowalsoneutralCSI300versusMSCIChina(previouslypr
3、eferredCSI300)andneutralMSCIEMversusMSCIAPxJ(previouslypreferredEM).MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+JonathanFGarnerEQUITYSTRATEGISTJonathan.Garner@morganstanley.comPankajMataneyEQUITYSTRATEGISTPankaj.Mataney@morganstanley.comLauraWangEQUITYSTRATEGISTYinanZhang,Ph.D.QUANTITATIV
4、EANALYSTYinan.Zhang@morganstanley.com+8523963-3507StevenYe,CFAQUANTITATIVEANALYSTSteven.Ye@morganstanley.com+8522239-7799CrystalNgLaura.Wang@morganstanley.comEQUITYSTRATEGISTCrystal.Ng@morganstanley.comCoreyNg,CFAEQUITYSTRATEGISTCorey.Ng@morganstanley.com+8522848-7288+8
5、522239-7830+8522848-6853+8522239-1468+8522848-552337OurpriorreductionswereinApril(seeLoweringOurIndexTargets)andwehavebeencautioussincelastNovember(seeARougherRide).WhilesentimenttowardsEM(lesssoJapan)hasbeguntoturnnegative,wedonotthinkoutflowshavebeenlargeenoughyet-orva
6、luationshavebecomecheapenough-towarrantacontrarianbullishstanceinthefaceofadeterioratingmacrobackdropincluding:a)firmingupofmarketexpectationsforFedtighteningfrom3hikesin2018to4,b)furtherdeteriorationinourChinafreeliquidityindicator,c)abreakhigherintheDXY(weakerinCNY)sin
7、celastThursdaycloseandd)significantheighteningofUS/Chinatradeprotectionismrisks.WecutourearningsforecastsforDec2019EPSforMSCIEM,APxJandtheChina/HKindicesbybetween4%and8%,mainlyduetomarkingtomarketforrecentFXmovesandinlightofoureconomicsteam'srecentGDPdowngradesforBrazila
8、ndSouthAfrica.However,weleaveourTopixearningsforecastsunchanged.ForEM,wearenow17%belowconsensusforDec20
