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1、FOCUSU.S.HealthCareServicesInitiateonMedicaidMCOSectorPositiveOutlookonMedicaidManagedCareSectorWeareinitiatingcoverageoftheMedicaidManagedCare(MCO)sector.AmongtheINITIATINGCOVERAGEU.S.HealthCareServicesNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch23July2018key‘value-a

2、dd’componentsofthisreport,weprovideadetailedanalysisofMedicaidbiddinghistoryandassociatedcompany‘battingaverages.’WealsoincludeproprietaryRFPscoringcomposites(analyzingqualityofbids).Finally,weconductadeepdiveintoForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandear

3、ningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.theupcomingMedicaidstatecontractRFPpipelinetoassesswinnersandlosersamongthethreepublicly-tradedcompaniesweareaddingtocoverageinthisreport.PlentyofleverstosustainprofitablegrowthatCentene(CNC);initiateatOWWeare

4、initiatingcoverageofCentenewithanOverweight(OW)ratingand$158PT.CNCisaperennialheavyweightintheMedicaidMCOsector,andboaststhebesttrackrecordofhistoricalwin-lossratioonMedicaidstatecontractbidsamongthepublicly-tradedpeergroup.WithseverallargeupcomingStateRFP

5、s(TX,PA,NC),webelieveCNCiswell-positionedtoremainanetmarketsharegainerinMedicaidoverthenext1-3years,whilerampingupitsMedicarefranchise(providesfurthergrowthopportunityinexistingregions).CNChasalsogrownprofitsthusfarin2018withnewexchangemembers.Ourdiscussio

6、nswithmanagementsuggestthattheCNC’sM&Apipelineformorepotentialdirect-negotiateddeals(beyondFidelis)remainsfairlyrobust.$158PTisbasedonan18xP/Eonour2019EPSestimateof$8.57(Street$8.28),adiscounttotheMedicaidMCOpeergroup(andinlinewiththelargediversifiedMCOpee

7、raverage).TurnaroundatMolina(MOH)isintriguing,butmaybepricedin;weinitiatewithEWNewmanagementatMOHhostedananalystmeetinginlateMaythatprovidedadetailed3-yearturnaroundstrategythatshouldculminateinnetmarginsof2.3-2.7%forthecompanyby2020(inthecontextofnegative

8、-2.5%netmarginsin2017).Webelievetheoperationalturnaround,inconjunctionwithcorporatetaxreform,willallowMOHtoachieveitsnetmargintargets,butthatmuchofthisisalreadyreflectedinthecurrentMOHvaluation.Thusweinitiate