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1、萬(wàn)方數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算機(jī)研究與發(fā)展ISSN1000-12391CN11—1777／TPJournalofComputerResearchandDevelopment46(3)：353—362，2009基于信息融合的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估模型韋勇連一峰馮登國(guó)(中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)電子工程與信息科學(xué)系合肥230027)(中國(guó)科學(xué)院軟件研究所信息安全國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室北京100190)(weiyong@is．iscas．a(chǎn)c．cn)ANetworkSecuritySituationalAwarenessModelBasedonInformationFusion
2、WeiYong，LianYifeng，andFengDengguo(DepartmentofElectronicEngineeringandInformationScience，UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofChina，Hefei230027)(StateKeyLaboratoryofInformationSecurity，InstituteofSoftzvare，ChineseAcademyofSciences，Beijing100190)AbstractSecuritysituationa
3、lawarenesshasbecomeahottopicintheareaofnetworksecurityresearchinrecentyears，whichattractstheinterestofmoreandmoredomesticandforeignresearchers．Theexistingsecuritysituationalawarenessmethodsareanalyzedandcomparedindetail．Consideringthecharacteristicsofmulti—sourceinfor
4、mationinnetworksecurityresearch．a(chǎn)newnetworksecuritysituationalawarenessmodelbasedoninformationfusionisproposed．Thismodelfusesmulti-sourceinformationfromamassoflogsbyintroducingthemodifiedD—Sevidencetheory，getsthevaluesofnodessecuritysituationalawarenessbysituationalfa
5、ctorsfusionusingattacksthreatandvulnerabilityinformationwhichnetworknodeshaveandsuccessfulattacksdependon，computesthevalueofnetworksecuritysituationalawarenessbynodessituationfusionusingserviceinformationofthenetworknodes，anddrawsthesecurity-situation-graphofnetwork．T
6、hen，itanalyzesthetimeseriesofthecomputingresultsbyARMAmodeltOforecastthefuturethreatinnetworksecurity．FinallyanexampleofactualnetworkdatasetsisgiventovalidatethenetworksecuritysituationalawarenessmodeIandalgorithm．Theresultsshowthatthismodelandalgorithmismoreeffective
7、andaccuratethantheexistingsecuritysituationalawarenessmethods．Keywordssecuritysituationalawareness；informationfusion；D—Sevidencetheory；timeseriesanalysis；forecast摘要安全態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估是近年來(lái)國(guó)內(nèi)外在網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全領(lǐng)域的研究熱點(diǎn)之一．對(duì)已有的安全態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析和比較，針對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全中多數(shù)據(jù)源的特點(diǎn)，提出基于信息融合的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估模型，引入改進(jìn)的D—S證據(jù)理論將多數(shù)據(jù)源信
8、息進(jìn)行融合，利用漏洞信息和服務(wù)信息，經(jīng)過(guò)態(tài)勢(shì)要素融合和節(jié)點(diǎn)態(tài)勢(shì)融合計(jì)算網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全態(tài)勢(shì)，繪制安全態(tài)勢(shì)曲線圖，同時(shí)對(duì)態(tài)勢(shì)計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行時(shí)間序列分析，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)．最后利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)實(shí)例數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)所提出的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估模型和算法進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證，結(jié)果表明該
