美股-生物制藥業(yè)-美國生物制藥業(yè)2018年q3盈利預覽

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1、COREU.S.Biopharmaceuticals3Q18EarningsPreviewRecentcorrectioninBioPharmaaddstouncertaintygoingintotheelectionseasonbutsectorexpectationsstillmodestfor3Q:Afterachallengingstarttothecalendaryear,momentuminBioPharmahasgraduallyshiftedinapositivedirection,withINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Bioph

2、armaceuticalsPOSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch12October2018investorsentimenttrendingupwardsheadingintothelatterpartof2018.WhiletherecentmarketcorrectionhasweighedmoreheavilyonBiotech(YTDNBI:+2.2%vs.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableo

3、npage2.SPX:+2.1%)thanPharma(DRG:+4.2%),theformerended3Qmodestlyabovethebroadermarket(NBI:+14.3%vs.SPX:+9.0%)withPharma(DRG:+8.9%)inline.Average2019P/Emultiples,whilestillbelowJanuarylevels,havereboundedfromMaynadirsandHCfundflowshaveremainedpositivethusfarin2H18—muchofwhich,wesus

4、pect,isdrivenbyabullishviewonnovelplatforms/technologies.AndalthoughFXmayserveasaslightheadwindheadinginto3Q,webelieveoverallmodestexpectationsshouldprovideadditionalstrengthformanyplayers.Whetherornotthisiscapableofreignitingsubstantialgeneralistinterestisunclear;wecontinuetobel

5、ievemoremeaningful,large-scaleM&Aand/orhigh-impactclinicalreadoutsmaybenecessarytoincreasebroaderinterestinthespace.Todate,generalistintereststillseemsfocusedonsmallcapbiotechgiventheinnovationcycleandthemorediversifiedPharmanames,andlessonmidandlargecapbiotech.Broadly,wearestill

6、positiveonthesectoroverallheadinginto3Qearningsandseepotentialforcontinuedmomentuminto4Qandearly2019,withlimitednear-termpressuresfromnegativepricingrhetoricandwouldbebuyersatthecurrentlevels.PositiveoutlookforLillyandGilead.WeremainpositiveonLilly,whichlookswell-positionedfor3Q1

7、8.AnchoredbyTrulicity’sexpansion—bolsteredbygrowthofoveralltheGLP-1class—wemodelstrengthacrosstheportfolioasthecompanyappearssetforitsnextlegofgrowth.Gileadalsoappearspoisedforasolid3Q,evenaccountingforthecontinued(albeitmoderating)contractionofHCV,withBiktarvy’slaunchtrajectoryr

8、emainingrobust—withlittleimpactontherest