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1、我國(guó)農(nóng)民收入影響因素的回歸分析本文力圖應(yīng)用適當(dāng)?shù)亩嘣€性回歸模型,對(duì)有關(guān)農(nóng)民收入的歷史數(shù)據(jù)和現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,探討影響農(nóng)民收入的主要因素,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)如何增加農(nóng)民收入提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。?農(nóng)民收入水平的度量常采用人均純收入指標(biāo)。影響農(nóng)民收入增長(zhǎng)的因素是多方面的，既有結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾因素，又有體制性障礙因素。但可以歸納為以下幾個(gè)方面：一是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品收購(gòu)價(jià)格水平。二是農(nóng)業(yè)剩余勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移水平。三是城市化、工業(yè)化水平。四是農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)狀況。五是農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平?？紤]到復(fù)雜性和可行性，所以對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)投入與農(nóng)民收入，本文暫不作討論。因此，以全國(guó)為例，把農(nóng)民收入與各影響因素關(guān)系進(jìn)行線性回歸
2、分析，并建立數(shù)學(xué)模型。一、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型分析(一)、數(shù)據(jù)搜集根據(jù)以上分析，我們?cè)谟绊戅r(nóng)民收入因素中引入7個(gè)解釋變量。即：-財(cái)政用于農(nóng)業(yè)的支出的比重，-第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人數(shù)占全社會(huì)從業(yè)人數(shù)的比重，-非農(nóng)村人口比重，-鄉(xiāng)村從業(yè)人員占農(nóng)村人口的比重，-農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值占農(nóng)林牧總產(chǎn)值的比重，-農(nóng)作物播種面積，—農(nóng)村用電量?！x2x3x4x5x6x7x8年份78年可比價(jià)比重%%比重比重千公頃億千瓦時(shí)1986133.6013.4329.5017.9236.0179.99150104.07253.101987137.6312.2031.3019.3938.6275.63146
3、379.53320.801988147.867.6637.6023.7145.9069.25143625.87508.901989196.769.4239.9026.2149.2362.75146553.93790.501990220.539.9839.9026.4149.9364.66148362.27844.501991223.2510.2640.3026.9450.9263.09149585.80963.201992233.1910.0541.5027.4651.5361.51149007.101106.901993265.679.4943.6027
4、.9951.8660.07147740.701244.901994335.169.2045.7028.5152.1258.22148240.601473.901995411.298.4347.8029.0452.4158.43149879.301655.701996460.688.8249.5030.4853.2360.57152380.601812.701997477.968.3050.1031.9154.9358.23153969.201980.101998474.0210.6950.2033.3555.8458.03155705.702042.201
5、999466.808.2349.9034.7857.1657.53156372.812173.452000466.167.7550.0036.2259.3355.68156299.852421.302001469.807.7150.0037.6660.6255.24155707.862610.782002468.957.1750.0039.0962.0254.51154635.512993.402003476.247.1250.9040.5363.7250.08152414.963432.922004499.399.6753.1041.7665.6450.
6、05153552.553933.032005521.207.2255.2042.9967.5949.72155487.734375.70資料來(lái)源《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒2006》。(二)、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型建立我們?cè)O(shè)定模型為下面所示的形式：利用Eviews軟件進(jìn)行最小二乘估計(jì)，估計(jì)結(jié)果如下表所示：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresSample:19862004Includedobservations:19VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-1102.373375.8283-
7、2.9331840.0136X1-6.6353933.781349-1.7547690.1071X318.229422.0666178.8208990.0000X42.4300398.3703370.2903160.7770X5-16.237375.894109-2.7548470.0187X6-2.1552082.770834-0.7778190.4531X70.0099620.0023284.2788100.0013X80.0633890.0212762.9793480.0125R-squared0.995823Meandependentvar345.
8、5232AdjustedR-squared0.993165S.D.
