贛定高速公路對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)影響的分析

《贛定高速公路對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)影響的分析》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫(kù)。

1、摘要近些年，伴隨著中國(guó)高速公路的飛速發(fā)展，高速公路對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響越來(lái)越成為社會(huì)和政府關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。高速公路作為一種現(xiàn)代化的公路運(yùn)輸通道，在當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中正發(fā)揮著越來(lái)越重要的作用。有鑒于高速公路的種種優(yōu)勢(shì)，我國(guó)自一九九八年以來(lái)大力投資高速公路建設(shè)。江西省積極響應(yīng)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢(shì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略布局，加大了對(duì)高速公路的投資力度。當(dāng)前，對(duì)高速公路經(jīng)濟(jì)影響評(píng)價(jià)，基本上采用投入產(chǎn)出法、系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)法、宏觀計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)法等，能從一定意義上定量地分析高速公路項(xiàng)目前期投資和后期經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)，但還存在不足。比如，投入產(chǎn)出法所需的數(shù)據(jù)難于收集和整理，而且部門之間難以劃分

2、；系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型本來(lái)就是一種模擬的模型，理論基礎(chǔ)相對(duì)薄弱，且對(duì)于參數(shù)的變化不夠敏感。正是因?yàn)楹暧^性、綜合性、定量難是高速公路項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響評(píng)價(jià)的特點(diǎn)，所以大部分研究都只集中在項(xiàng)目前期研究，對(duì)高速公路項(xiàng)目后期經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的研究一般都以定性研究為主或者并入高速公路項(xiàng)目的社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)中。本論文結(jié)合贛定高速公路沿線調(diào)查、國(guó)內(nèi)外資料查詢與整理，運(yùn)用灰色系統(tǒng)理論、對(duì)比分析法、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等方法，定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合，理論研究與實(shí)證分析相統(tǒng)一，對(duì)贛定高速公路的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析，建立灰色GM(1,1)模型，計(jì)算贛定高速公路對(duì)沿線各地國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響和

3、貢獻(xiàn)有多大，對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)部門波及效果如何等等，為高速公路項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)提供一條新的思路，從而為高速公路與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。關(guān)鍵詞：高速公路；經(jīng)濟(jì)影響；灰色系統(tǒng)IAbstractInrecentyears,alongwiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'sexpressways,highways,theimpactontheregionaleconomyandthegovernmentincreasinglybecomethefocusofattention.Highwayasamodernroadtra

4、nsportcorridor,intoday'seconomiclifeisplayinganincreasinglyimportantrole.Givenalltheadvantagesofthehighway,since1998Chinahasbeeninvestingheavilyinhighwayconstruction.RespondpositivelytonationaleconomicdevelopmentinJiangxiProvinceandtheeconomicsituationofstrategiclayout,

5、andincreasedinvestmentinthehighway.Currently,theeconomicimpactassessmentonthehighway,basicallyinput-outputmethod, systemdynamicsmethod,themacromeasuresofeconomiclaw,etc.,fromacertainsense,the quantitativeanalysisofhighwayinvestmentintheprojectpre-economicandpost-economi

6、c effects,buttherearestillinsufficient.Forexample,therequiredinput-outputmethodisdifficult tocollectandcollatethedata,butdifficulttodrawbetweendepartments;systemdynamicsmodel isasimulationmodeloriginally,thetheoreticalbasisisrelativelyweak,andtheparameterswere notsensit

7、iveenough.Itisbecausethemacroandcomprehensive,quantitativedifficultyis evaluatingtheeconomicimpactofhighwayprojectscharacteristics,somostoftheresearchstudy onlyfocusedontheprojectearly,lateonthehighwayeconomicimpactoftheprojectare generallybasedonqualitativeresearchorin

8、tothehighwayproject'ssocialimpactassessment. Inthisthesis,alongwithGandinghighwaysurvey,dataqueryandorderathom