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1、BASICSOFELNI?O-SOUTHERNOSCILLATION(ENSO)ErnestoR.VercelesPAGASAWHATISELNI?O?Commonnotions:“ElNi?omeansnowaterinfaucetsandshowers”“ElNi?omeansnoplantingfortheseasonortwo”Thesearepartiallytrue…theseareallimpactsoftheELNI?OOnenewspaperheadline:PAGASAinsistsElNi?oalreadyinRP
2、-Despiteheavyrainsandtyphoons(PanayNewsdated13January2005)“ElNi?omeansseveredrought”WHATISELNI?O(LANI?A)?ElNi?o(LaNi?a)isaconditioninthePacificoceanandcharacterizedbythecyclicwarming(cooling)ofthecentralandeasternequatorialPacific(CEEP).ObservedSeaSurfaceTemperatureAnaly
3、zedSeaSurfaceTemperatureELNI?OLANI?ALowertempLowertempHighertempHighertempCoolertempCoolertempWarmertempWarmertempCEEPwarmingCEEPcoolingMonthlyobservationandanalysisofOCEANSURFACEduringElNi?o1997-98andLaNi?a1998-99ElNino1997startedinMarchLaNina1998startedinJulyMonthlyobs
4、ervationandanalysisofOCEANDEPTH(~300meters)duringElNi?o1997-98andLaNi?a1998-99ASIAAUSTRALIANorthandSouthAMERICAElNino1997startedinMarchLaNina1998startedinJulyMEASURINGOCEANPARAMETERSTHENI?OREGIONSSampleDataforNI?OREGIONSThus,“ELNI?O”isaconditioninthecentralandeasternequa
5、torialPacificOceanwhereunusualwarmingisoccurring.(Notethattheformation/developmentofElNi?oisveryfarfromthecountry..)Then,whyisitaffectingthephilippines..Theanswerliesintheatmosphere…ThephenomenoniscalledSOUTHERNOSCILLATION…SouthernOscillationistheatmosphericcomponentofEN
6、SOandmeasuredintermsofthedifferenceinstandardizedpressureanomaliesoverTahitiandDarwin,andwindanomalyatlowlevelwinds(850mbslevel).WHATISSOUTHERNOSCILLATION?ELNI?OCONDITIONLANI?ACONDITIONAustraliaHLHLAustraliaCOMBINEDEFFECTOFELNI?O-SOUTHERNOSCILLATION(ENSO)INTHETROPICALPAC
7、IFICGLOBALIMPACTOFELNI?O-SOUTHERNOSCILLATION(ENSO)ELNI?OLANI?AELNI?OLANI?AIMPACTSOFENSOandNON-ENSOONPHILIPPINEANNUALRAINFALLREDcoloredyearsareELNINOyears,Legend:PotentialAreasUnderSeveredroughtimpactsDroughtimpactswithmajorlossesModeratedroughtimpactsNearnormaltoabovenor
8、malconditionWayabovenormalconditionFlooddamageSevereflooddamageBLUEcoloredyearsareLANINAyearsandBLACKco
