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1、1.China’sNaturalGasMarketOutlook2.FocusontoUnconventionalGasSector3.GasPricingOutlookTableofContentChinainaGlobalContextCAGR2011-2016:13.4%4.0%4.2%4.0%1.7%2.7%1.7%050350300250200150100bcf/d400GlobalGasConsumptionbyRegionChinaAsiaex.ChinaAfricaMiddleEastEurope/EurasiaSouthAmericaNorth
2、AmericaForecastChina’sshareinglobalconsumption2.5%2.8%3.2%3.6%4.3%4.9%5.3%5.7%6.6%7.0%Source:PFCEnergy?Chinaisnowtheworld’sfourthlargestgasconsumer,trailingonlytheUnitedStates,RussiaandIran.Itsshareinglobalgasconsumptionrosesignificantlyfrom2.5%in2007to4.3%in2011.?Lookingahead,Chines
3、egasconsumptionisexpectedtokeepitsimpressivedouble-digitgrowthmomentuminthenextfiveyears,farexceedingitsglobalpeers.By2016,Chinaisprojectedtoaccountfor7.0%ofglobalgasconsumption.China’sUnconventionalGasMarketandPricingOutlook
4、?PFCEnergy
5、yli@pfcenergy.com
6、Page3ChinaasaSupply-Constrain
7、edMarket?Chineseconstrainedgasbyconsumptionsupply,andisgaspenetrationisheavilydependentontheavailabilityandaccessibilityofgas.?Drivenbyhugemarketpotentialandstronggovernmentincentives,gasproducersandimporterswillsignificantlyrampupinfrastructurebuild-out,domesticconventionalandunconv
8、entionalgasproductionaswellasimportedpipelinegasandliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)volumes.?Asaresultofsupplygrowth,overthenextfiveyearsandbeyond,naturalgasconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuetoexperiencerobustgrowth.?Itisworthnotingthatthereissignificantadditionaldemandpotentialbeyondtheforecast
9、edconsumptionlevelthatcouldbetappedbyincrementalsupply.ConverselyanyadditionalsupplyoverandabovethebaselineforecastislikelytobeabsorbedbythemarketgiventhecurrentlowgaspenetrationratecomparedtoOECDeconomies.China’sUnconventionalGasMarketandPricingOutlook
10、?PFCEnergy
11、yli@pfcenergy.com
12、P
13、age42520151050303540bcf/dChina:GasBalance(2007-2016)LNGImportsDomesticConventionalConsumptionPipelineImportsDomesticUnconventionalDemandUpsideSources:PFCEnergyForecastChina’sTargetsfor2015PrimaryEnergyMix?Inthe12FYP(2011-2015),Beijinghasestablishedthefollowingpolicyobjectives:–Non-fo
14、ssilenergyto
