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1、水力發(fā)電學(xué)報(bào)2015年第34卷第9期梯度發(fā)展模式下我國(guó)水資源利用效率評(píng)價(jià)陳午，許新宜，王紅瑞，崔勝玉（北京師范大學(xué)水科學(xué)研究院，北京100875）摘要：水資源利用效率問題是水資源研究領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)之一。本文通過構(gòu)建水資源利用效率評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，利用Spearman檢驗(yàn)淘汰不通過一致性檢驗(yàn)的專家指標(biāo)排序，并運(yùn)用循環(huán)修正的思路統(tǒng)一指標(biāo)重要程度排序，最后通過相鄰兩個(gè)指標(biāo)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差比值確定指標(biāo)間的重要性比率，建立了基于改進(jìn)序關(guān)系法的水資源利用效率評(píng)價(jià)模型，并對(duì)我國(guó)31個(gè)省級(jí)行政區(qū)的水資源利用效率進(jìn)行評(píng)估，結(jié)果表明我國(guó)水資源利用效率水平呈現(xiàn)出西低東高
2、的分布特征；進(jìn)一步運(yùn)用Moran’sI指數(shù)對(duì)梯度發(fā)展模式下中國(guó)水資源利用效率的全域和局部空間特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)水資源利用效率存在較強(qiáng)的空間相關(guān)性，多數(shù)省級(jí)行政區(qū)表現(xiàn)為HH和LL型相關(guān)；實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明，我國(guó)水資源利用效率呈現(xiàn)出明顯的梯度發(fā)展特征，對(duì)此，建議采取一系列政策措施來縮小這種區(qū)域梯度差異情況。關(guān)鍵詞：水資源；利用效率；改進(jìn)序關(guān)系法；梯度發(fā)展；空間相關(guān)性中圖分類號(hào)：TV213文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：Adoi:10.11660/slfdxb.20150904Evaluationofwaterresourcesutilizatione
3、fficiencyinChinaundergradientdevelopmentCHENWu,XUXinyi,WANGHongrui,CUIShengyu(CollegeofWaterScience,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing100875)Abstract:Waterresourcesutilizationefficiencyisoneofthekeyissuesinwaterresourcesstudy.Thispaperpresentsthedevelopmentofanevaluationm
4、odelofwaterresourcesutilizationefficiencyusingamethodofimprovedrankcorrelationanalysis.ThismodelusesanevaluationindexsystemconstructedspecificallyforChina,consistencytestforselectingindexrankssuggestedbyexpertstoeliminatetheordersthatfailthetestandtheideaofcircularrevi
5、sion,tounifytheindexranksofimportance.Itdeterminestherelativeimportanceoftwoadjacentindexesaccordingtotheratiosoftheirstandarddeviations.Themodelhasbeenappliedtotheefficiencyevaluationsfor31provincialadministrativedistrictsofChina.Theresultsindicatethattheutilizationef
6、ficiencyislowerinthewesternregionsandhigherintheeasternregions.WehaveusedtheMoran’sIindextoexaminetheglobalandlocalspatialdistributionsoftheutilizationefficiencyinChinaundergradientdevelopment.Thisrevealsthattheutilizationefficiencyhasstrongspatialdependenceandmostofth
7、edistrictsarecharacterizedbyaHH,orLL,type.Thus,weconcludethatChina’sexistingwaterresourcesutilizationefficiencyisfeaturedwithobviousgradientdevelopment,andsuggestthatsystematicpoliciesandmeasuresshouldbetakentoreducetheregionaldifferences.Keywords:waterresources;utiliz
8、ationefficiency;methodofimprovedrankcorrelationanalysis;gradientdevelopment;spatialdependence收稿日期：2014-09-02基金項(xiàng)目：國(guó)家自然
