Opportunities and roles for models to aid the management of agricultural and other natural resources within the variable climate of Australia.pdf

Opportunities and roles for models to aid the management of agricultural and other natural resources within the variable climate of Australia.pdf

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1、EnvironmentInternational,Vol.25,No.6/7,pp.907-912.1999PergamonCopyright01999ElsevierScienceLtdPrintedintheUSA.Allrightsreserved0160-4120/99/S-seefrontmatterPI1SO160-4120(99)00059-SOPPORTUNITIESANDROLESFORMODELSTOAIDTHEMANAGEMENTOFAGRICULTURALANDOTHERNA

2、TURALRESOURCESWITHINTHEVARIABLECLIMATEOFAUSTRALIADavidH.WhiteAS!TConsulting,Hawker,P.O.Box328,ACT2614,AustraliaEI9808-209M(Received31August1998;accepted6April1999)Australianruralproducersandotherlandmanagersarebeingencouraged,undertheNationalDroughtPol

3、icy,tobemoreself-reliantinthewaytheycopewiththeirhighlyvariableclimate.Therolesofmodelsinimplementingthispolicyaredescribed.TheseincludeusingstatisticalandGeneralCirculationModelsasthebasisofimprovedseasonalforecasting,hydrologicalandagronomicmodelstom

4、onitorregionalchangesinsoilmoistureandvegetativecover,andDecisionSupportSystemstoestimatethevalueofadaptingmanagementtotakeadvantageofseasonalfore-castsorofclimatevariabilityperse.Anationalresearchprogramwasundertakentostudyhowagronomicmodelscouldbeuse

5、dtoestimatetheimpactofdroughtoncropandgrasslandpro-duction,sinceonlyinthemostexceptionaldroughtswouldruralproducersbeeligibleforgovem-mentsupport.Suchmodelsprovedeffectiveforevaluatingdroughtsinspecificlocations,andarenowbeingintegratedwithremotesensin

6、gandotherdataintoGeographicInformationSystemstoaidregionalassessmentofdrought.Itwasconcludedthatthesetoolsprovidedasoundbasisforimprovingthemanagementofagriculturalandothernaturalresources.01999ElsevierScienceLtdINTRODUCTIONAustraliaisapredominantlyari

7、dcontinentwithaTheobjectivesoftheNDPareto:1)encouragehighlyvariableclimateandahighincidenceofdroughtprimaryproducersandothersectionsofruralAustralia(McBrideandNicholls1983).Governmentsupportfortoadoptself-reliantapproachestomanagingforclima-drought-aff

8、ectedfarmershasbeenconsiderable,ticvariability;2)maintainandprotectAustralia’sagri-leadingtoa1989reviewofdroughtpolicy.InAugustculturalandenvironmentalresourcebaseduringperi-1992,theFederalandStategovernmentsadoptedaodsofextremeclimates

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