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1、AustralianEconomicHistoryReview,Vol.43,No.2July2003ISSN0004-8992THECHINESESILVERSTANDARDECONOMYANDTHE1929GREATDEPRESSION?B?C????-?????L??*???J?????J?-S?????G??*NationalTsingHuaUniversityand?Directorate-GeneralofBudget,AccountingandStatistics,TaiwanItisoftenargu
2、edthatthesilverstandardinsulatedtheChineseeconomyfromtheGreatDepressionthatprevailedinthegoldstandardcountriesduringtheperiod1929–1935.Usingeconometrictestingandcounterfactualsimulations,thisarticleshowsthatifChinahadbeenonthegoldstandard(oronthegold-exchangest
3、an-dard),thebalanceoftradeofthissemiclosedeconomywouldhavebeenameliorated,butthegeneralpricelevelwouldhavedeclinedsigni?cantly.Duetolimitedstatistics,twoimportantvariables(GDPandindustrialproduction)arenotincludedintheanalysis,butthegeneralargumentthatthesilver
4、standardwasalifeboattotheChineseeconomyremainsdefensible.PROPOSITION‘Thegoldstandardofthe1920ssetthestagefortheDepressionofthe1930sbyheight-eningthefragilityoftheinternational?nancialsystem.Thegoldstandardwasthemechanismtransmittingthedestabilizingimpulsefromth
5、eUnitedStatestotherestoftheworld.Thegoldstandardmagni?edthatinitialdestabilizingshock.Itwastheprin-cipalobstacletooffsettingaction.Itwasthebindingconstraintpreventingpolicymakersfromavertingthefailureofbanksandcontainingthespreadof?nancialpanic.Forallthesereaso
6、ns,theinternationalgoldstandardwasacentralfactorintheworldwideDepression.Recoveryprovedpossible,forthesesamereasons,onlyafterabandoningthegoldstandard.’(Eichengreen1992:xi)Otherstudies,suchasEichengreenandSachs(1985),Hamilton(1988)andBernankeandJames(1991)suppo
7、rtthisview.This‘goldenfetters’hypothesisgivesthegoldstandardamajorroleinthecausationandtransmissionofthe1929GreatDepression(Temin1993:87).Theworldgoldstandardsystemprevailedbetweenthe1870sandtheearly1930s.Itcanbeunderstoodasequivalenttoa?xedexchangerateregimeth
8、attiedgold*Allstatisticaldatausedinthispaperareavailablefromtheauthorsuponrequest.FinancialsupportfromNationalScienceCouncil(Taiwan)undercontractNSC88-2415-H-007-005isgratef
