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1、TheDynamicsofReputationsBernardoA.HubermanandFangWuHPLabsandStanfordUniversityPaloAlto,CA94304October14,2002AbstractWestudytheendogenousdynamicsofreputationsinasystemcon-sistingof?rmswithlonghorizonsthatprovidegoodsorserviceswithvaryinglevelsofquality,andlar
2、genumbersofcustomerswhoassigntothemreputationsonthebasisofthequalitylevelsthattheyexperiencewheninteractingwiththem.Weshowthatforgivendiscountsofthepastonthepartofthecustomers,andofe?ortlevelsonthepartofthe?rms,thedynamicscanleadtoeitherwellde?nedequilibriao
3、rpersistentnonlinearoscillationsinthenumberofcustomersvisitinga?rm,imply-ingunstablereputations.Weestablishthecriteriaunderwhichequilibriaarestableandalsoshowtheexistenceoflargetransientswhichcanalsorender?xedpointsunattainablewithinreasonabletimes.Moreoverw
4、eestablishthatthetimescalesforthebuildupanddecayofreputationsinthecaseofprivateinformationaremuchlongerthatthoseinvolvingpublicinformation.Thisprovidesaplausibleexplanationfortherathersuddenincreaseandcollapseofreputationsinanumberofmuchpublicizedcases.11Int
5、roductionTheconceptofreputationanditsroleinsocietyandeconomicshasbeenthor-oughlydiscussedanddocumentedovertheyears.Reputationsplayanimpor-tantroleintheprivateenforcementofcontracts[1],indecidingtheleveloftrustincommercialexchanges[3],insettingthevalueofparti
6、cularbrandsandindecidingwhomtohireorconsultforprofessionaladvice.Morerecently,theemergenceofInternetmediatedinteractionsovervastlydispersegeographiclo-cationshasmadetheenforcementofcontractsthroughcourtsoflawdi?cultenoughsoastomakereputationsanimportantalter
7、nativemechanismfortheenforcementofcontracts[4].AvividexampleisfoundinauctionsitessuchaseBay,wherebothbuyersandsellersassignreputationstoeachotheronafrequentanddynamicbasis[5].Thatreputationsplayacrucialroleindecidingthefateof?rmsandindivid-ualshasbeenhighlig
8、htedbyanumberofrecenthighpro?lecorporatescandals,characterizedbyamisrepresentationofpro?tstoshareholdersonthepartof?rmsandexecutiveswithhighreputations.Whilethosebrandnamese?ectivelypreventedthe
