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1、China’sHumanSpaceflightProgram:AchievementsandProspectsScottPaceSpacePolicyInstituteElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairsGeorgeWashingtonUniversityWashington,D.C.20052TheNewestMemberoftheEVAClub2MilestonesinSpaceCapabilityChinaRussiaUnitedStatesSatelliteLaunch19701957
2、1958HumanLaunch2003196119622-mancrew2005N/A19653-mancrew200819641968Spacewalk/EVA2008(14min.)1965(24min.)1965(20min.)SpaceLaboratory?1971(Salyut1)1973(Skylab)Circum-lunarflight??1968(Apollo8)3Orion-Shenzhou-SoyuzComparison?Shenzhouisanupgradedversionoftheprovendesig
3、nPayloadPackageoftheRussianSoyuzvehicle(Sensors)–Shenzhouis~95+%indigenouslydevelopedandproducedOrbitalModule–Shenzhouis13%largerthanSoyuzSolarArrays–Modificationstolanding,abort,andreentrysystems?2.3?FutureShenzhoumissionsinfluencedbyorwillutilize2.62.8?2.2evolvedR
4、ussiandesigns&products–Spacesuits(EVA)?1.4–KURS&APAS(rendezvousanddockingsystem)?1.12.06?Implication:ShenzhoulikelycompatiblewithISS1.9?2.2?2.52SoyuzShenzhouOrionTotalMass-kg6,800-7,5007,840~16,800Length-m7.489.25~10.002.5?2.22.94Diameter-m2.722.80~5.00ServiceModule
5、Mass–kg2,600-2,9503,000~8,300?2.72?2.8PropellantMass-kg9001,000~3,600SoyuzTMShenZhouServiceModuleLength–kg2.52.94~6.00CrewModuleMass–kg4,200-4,3004,760~8,500Shenzhou:13%LargerCrewModuleLength-m4.504.86~3.604PreliminaryNASA-CNSADiscussions?NASAAdministratorSeanO’Keef
6、emeetswithCNSAdelegationinDecember2004–SunLaiyan,AdministratorofChinaNationalSpaceAdministrator–Spaceapplications,Earthscienceandspacescience?NASAAdministratorMikeGriffinVisitsChinainSeptember2006–Discussionofregularexchanges?NASAteamvisitsCNSAinJuly2008–Formationof
7、twoworkinggroupsonEarthandspacescience?DependentonthebroaderU.S.-Chinarelationship–MissilesanctionsonGreatWallIndustryliftedbyTreasuryin20085ChineseHumanSpaceflightCapabilities?Steadyprogressonanupdated“VonBraunParadigm”–Shenzou8and9todemonstraterendezvous/dockingin
8、2010–Shenzou10tobeasmallspacelab–HumanstotheMoon??China’sfirstlunarmission(Chang’e1)launchedOctober2007–Secondvehicletobelaunchedin2009–So