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國(guó)際石油價(jià)格對(duì)俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響.pdf

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1、?°áD??/?}li>YzpJ)THEIMPACTOFINTERNATIONALOILPRICESONTHERUSSIANECONOMYKHVESKOYAUHENI20186¥|%f?F20á?6?10213¥?|%f?330?。Vó???á°áD??/?}li>YzpJ)4~v???KHVESKOYAUHENI)@D?wx9??á?°9??áN0??á?£a2018ê6?R 9??ü?áClassifiedIndex:F20U.D.C:330DissertationfortheMasterDegreeinFinanceTHEIMPAC

2、TOFINTERNATIONALOILPRICESONTHERUSSIANECONOMYCandidateKhveskoYauheniSupervisorProf.LiMengAcademicDegreeAppliedforMasterofEconomicsSpecialityFinanceAffiliationSchoolofManagementDateofDefenseJune,2018Degree-Conferring-InstitutionHarbinInstituteofTechnology??ü?á??á?°áD??AbstractTheoilisthe

3、oneofthemostimportantnaturalresourcesinthemoderneconomyandalsoitisbecomingmoreandmorerelevantfordevelopingcountries,whichalreadyaccountformorethanahalfofworld’stotaloilconsumption.ThegoalofthisstudyistoinvestigatetherelationshipsbetweenoilpriceandGDP,inflation,balanceofpayment,andtradebalancet

4、hroughanempiricalanalysisusingregressionmodels.Forourmodelswechoseperiodfrom1998till2016year.AlldataforresearchwasdownloadedfromIMFandRussianFederalStateStatisticsService.Forstatisticanalyzing,IusedprogramEViews10SV.ForRussianFederation,asforoneofmostexportingoilcountries,oil–isoneofthemostimp

5、ortantsourcesofforeignearnings.Theshareofexportsofoilandoilproductsinthetotalforeignexchangeearningsofthecountryisabout15%.TheroleoftheRussianoilcomplexasasourceofbudgetrevenuesisconstantlygrowing.ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofoilpricesonRussianeconomy,boththeoreticallyandempirically.Theoret

6、icalanalysis,whichmainlydiscussestherelationshipsbetweenRussianGDPandothermacroeconomicindicatorsandinternationaloilPrices.Relationshipsbetweenmacroeconomicindicatorsforoilexporterscountriesalsoweredescribedinworksofworld’sfamousscientists,suchasHamilton,FabioGoriandLiXiaotongect.Empiricalresu

7、ltsofourmodelsshowthatoilpriceandRussianGDP,inflation,balanceofpayment,andforeigntradebalancehasdeeprelationships(thecoefficientofRandR-Adjustedinourmodelisanabout99%).GrangercausalitytestshowthatoilpricesGrangercausesRussia’srealGDP,In

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