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1、?°áD??/?}li>YzpJ)THEIMPACTOFINTERNATIONALOILPRICESONTHERUSSIANECONOMYKHVESKOYAUHENI20186¥|%f?F20á?6?10213¥?|%f?330?。Vó???á°áD??/?}li>YzpJ)4~v???KHVESKOYAUHENI)@D?wx9??á?°9??áN0??á?£a2018ê6?R9??ü?áClassifiedIndex:F20U.D.C:330DissertationfortheMasterDegreeinFinanceTHEIMPAC
2、TOFINTERNATIONALOILPRICESONTHERUSSIANECONOMYCandidateKhveskoYauheniSupervisorProf.LiMengAcademicDegreeAppliedforMasterofEconomicsSpecialityFinanceAffiliationSchoolofManagementDateofDefenseJune,2018Degree-Conferring-InstitutionHarbinInstituteofTechnology??ü?á??á?°áD??AbstractTheoilisthe
3、oneofthemostimportantnaturalresourcesinthemoderneconomyandalsoitisbecomingmoreandmorerelevantfordevelopingcountries,whichalreadyaccountformorethanahalfofworld’stotaloilconsumption.ThegoalofthisstudyistoinvestigatetherelationshipsbetweenoilpriceandGDP,inflation,balanceofpayment,andtradebalancet
4、hroughanempiricalanalysisusingregressionmodels.Forourmodelswechoseperiodfrom1998till2016year.AlldataforresearchwasdownloadedfromIMFandRussianFederalStateStatisticsService.Forstatisticanalyzing,IusedprogramEViews10SV.ForRussianFederation,asforoneofmostexportingoilcountries,oil–isoneofthemostimp
5、ortantsourcesofforeignearnings.Theshareofexportsofoilandoilproductsinthetotalforeignexchangeearningsofthecountryisabout15%.TheroleoftheRussianoilcomplexasasourceofbudgetrevenuesisconstantlygrowing.ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofoilpricesonRussianeconomy,boththeoreticallyandempirically.Theoret
6、icalanalysis,whichmainlydiscussestherelationshipsbetweenRussianGDPandothermacroeconomicindicatorsandinternationaloilPrices.Relationshipsbetweenmacroeconomicindicatorsforoilexporterscountriesalsoweredescribedinworksofworld’sfamousscientists,suchasHamilton,FabioGoriandLiXiaotongect.Empiricalresu
7、ltsofourmodelsshowthatoilpriceandRussianGDP,inflation,balanceofpayment,andforeigntradebalancehasdeeprelationships(thecoefficientofRandR-Adjustedinourmodelisanabout99%).GrangercausalitytestshowthatoilpricesGrangercausesRussia’srealGDP,In