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1、西南交通大學碩士學位論文威布爾分布場合的貝葉斯統(tǒng)計推斷姓名：翟艷敏申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：應用數(shù)學指導教師：李裕奇2002.12.1露麓交避大學頸士薅}究整拳盛論交第}灝摘要恿冀戡溉魚和可靠性驄證問越襁可靠性工程中占有重要的位黼。煎中，詞。捺性詳髏是毆知產品蛉毒竊分布秘一綴數(shù)據，如德去鐨詩產燕瓣可禳技靜彝越，弼胃霾經驗迸是已鱺產熟匏潦命分糍，要求產晶熬菜個可囂{璉擻栝達到預定的蓬，魏傳確建試驗辯鬻靜瓣繇。本文鯔愛時凝方法囂藏蠢爾矮舍下熬霹纛揀譯嵇積疆{菱瓣越進行了深天熬臻究。．首先，討論了Weibull型產品的可靠憔評估問題。漆文分別從失效概率和可靠度蕊個整要指挺燃發(fā)，璦論上誕嘲先
2、驗分毒逸墩的臺理健，測躇多層受#中豢方法簿爨失效穰奉黧可靠震戇Bayes旗詩，雙薅褥嶷蘑最，{、二采法繪出來辯參數(shù)及可靠憔重要攢標酌Bayes估計，并在萼
3、進失效信息籍繪出了Bayes塔臺藩詩奠夕、一其次，分柝了在形狀參數(shù)已知、特征參數(shù)未知和形狀參數(shù)、特征參數(shù)均束翹熬瓣裂；諮澎下鶼Bayes區(qū)鼴鑣詩。l零文鑫霉l進最綴區(qū)窩襞囂翁穰念囂，繪}廷了泰辯參數(shù)稻胃靠棟蕹螫捂褥麓Bayes雙鍘和犖鍘囂兩估計。L。，。最后，討論Weibull型產品的甜靠性驗誠問題。同區(qū)間餓計分嬲葶I}情形給惠了蠢失效可靠犍驗涯方察。方案不枝考寒馕鼴方鰓弼益，箍纛蘧過蠢條贊瓤搴爨誕了生產：方豹零
4、l蕊。關鍵讕：
5、藏布爾分幫；籠失效數(shù)據{擻時斯估計；始驗分布{可纛性驗證麟素交滋大攀碳士褒究擻學接讒文繁{l豢。——．——．?！??！灰籄bstractThereliabilityestimateandthereliabilitydemonstrationtestareimportantinthereliabilityengineering，’thereliabilityestimateistheproblemhowtoestimatetheproducts"reliabititybasedontheknowndistributionanddataandthereliabilityde*mon
6、strationistheproblemhowlongthetestisbasedontheknowndistributionandsomereliabilityindexmeetingtheexpectation．Inthepaper,Bayesianmethodisus，edtostudytheproblemsofthereliabilityestimateandthereliabilitydemonstrationtestforWoib毽lldistribution，F(xiàn)irst,thereliabilityestimatefor硫ibutldistributionisdisc
7、ussed，Onthebasisofthefailureprobabilityandreliabill移，thepaperprovesthepriordistributionisreaso—nableandgets氌eirBayesianestimatebyrlleansofthehierarchicalpriordistribufion．Then，byaleastsquaremethodparametersandtheimportantreliabilltyindexesBa*yesianestimatesalegivenout。Besides，afterintroducingf
8、ailureinformation,Baye-siansynthesisestimatesaregivenout．+Secondly,Bayesianconfidenceboundsisstudiedforthetwoeases．Oneisthatthescaleparameterisknownandthecharacteristiclireisunknowrktheotheristhatbe-thatemaknown。Afterimroducingtheconceptofthe照ortestBayesianconfidenceinterval，thepapergivenOutth
9、ebilateralandsingleintervalestimatesofthepal'ame“tersandtheimportantreliabilityindexes．Atlast，thereliabilitydemonstrationtestforWeibulldistributtonisdiscussed。Theretiabilitydemonstrationtestingprocedureisgivenforeachofthetwocase,swhich菇
