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1、中國通脹持久性問題研究研究領(lǐng)域：數(shù)里經(jīng)濟與計量經(jīng)濟學摘要：中國通貨膨脹已經(jīng)持續(xù)10年保持在相對較低的水平，這是否暗示著通脹持久性已經(jīng)發(fā)生結(jié)構(gòu)性變化，從而使得中國的低通脹環(huán)境能長期保持下去？本文使用具有統(tǒng)計無偏性質(zhì)的“格點拔靴”（gridbootstrap）估計法和未知斷點檢驗法對1981－2007年期間中國的通脹持久性問題進行了嚴謹、深入的分析。實證結(jié)果顯示，消費者價格指數(shù)通脹率變量的持久性在九十年代末發(fā)生了顯著減弱，而零售商品價格指數(shù)通脹率的持久性系數(shù)沒有發(fā)生顯著變化。本文討論了實證結(jié)果與我國宏觀經(jīng)濟發(fā)展及政策變遷之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)
2、系。關(guān)鍵詞：：：通貨膨脹通脹持久性拔靴法結(jié)構(gòu)變化ModelingChinaInflationPersistenceAbstractInflationinChinahasbeenremarkablylowfornearlyonedecade.Buthasthepersistenceofinflationchangedinawaythatwouldhelpentrenchthelowinflationpermanently?Thisarticleinvestigatesthisimportantquestionbymodelings
3、tructuralchangesininflationpersistencebasedonbothconsumerpriceindexandretailpriceindexforChinaovertheperiod1981-2007.Theempiricalresultssuggestthatthepersistenceoftheconsumerpriceinflationhaswitnessedastatisticallysignificantreductionsincetheendofthe1990swhilethepers
4、istenceoftheretailpriceinflationappearstoremainhighandunchangedduringthesameperiod.ImplicationsoftheempiricalresultsandconnectionsofthefindingswithmacroandmonetarypolicychangesinChinaarediscussed.JELClassification:E31Keywords:inflation,inflationpersistence,bootstrap,
5、structuralchange1.IntroductionInretrospect,thebehaviorofinflationinChinaoverthemostrecentonequarterofacenturyorsohasbeenparticularlyintriguing.Fig.1displaysChinainflationbasedonconsumerpriceindex(CPI)andretailpriceindex(RPI)inquarterlyfrequencyfrom1981Q1-2007Q1.Thefi
6、gureshowsthatinflationinChinawasrelativelylowintheearly1980s,buttrendedupwardovertheperiodsofthelate1980sandthemiddle1990s,thendroppedsharplybythelate1990sandremainslowandstablesincethen.30252015(%)1050-5198319861989199219951998200120042007CPIRPIDatasource:NationalBu
7、reauofStatisticsofChina.Fig.1.CPIandRPIinflationofChina:1981Q1-2007Q1(%)TheprofoundvariationsinChinainflationhavespurredresearchersandpolicymakerstoseekagoodunderstandingofthedynamicprocessbetweeninflation,moneyaggregate,andoutput,notablyHasan(1999),GuerineauandGuill
8、amont(2005),GerlachandPeng(2006),andAustinetal.(2007),amongothers.Ageneralconsensusachievedinthesestudiesisthattheadventoflowinflat
