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1、TECHNICALANALYSISANALYZINGSUPPLYANDDEMANDUSINGPOINTANDFIGURECHARTSByWayneA.ThorpTheusefulnessofOneofthebasicprinciplesofeconomicsisthelawofsupplyanddemand.Itstatesthatwhentherearemorebuyersthantherearesellersofagivenpointandfiguregood,thepriceshouldrise.Likewise,whenth
2、erearemoresellersthanchartsliesintheirbuyers,thepriceshouldfall.Inthistechnicalanalysisarticle,wefocusonaabilitytofilterouttypeofchartthatattemptstocapturethebattlebetweensupplyanddemand:short-termpricethepointandfigurechart.fluctuationsthatPointandfigurechartshavebeen
3、inuseforover100years,yettheyexistinrelativeobscuritycomparedtobarchartsandcandlesticks.Theiruseful-occurduringlonger,nessliesintheirabilitytofilteroutmarket“noise”—short-termpricefluctua-moreestablishedtionsthatoccurduringlonger,moreestablishedtrends.Theydifferfromthet
4、rends.Theydiffermoreconventionalchartsinthattheyignorethepassageoftimeanddonotfromthemoretaketradingvolumeintoaccount—theyareonlyaffectedbypricemove-conventionalchartsments.Figure1isanexampleofapointandfigurechartforCiscoSystems,inthattheyareonlywhichcoversdailypricemo
5、vementsfortheperiodfromJanuary4,1999,affectedbypricethroughApril31,1999.Immediately,youshouldseesomesignificantmovements.differencesfromothercharts.First,thechartismadeupofcolumnsofX’sandO’s.X’srepresentrisingpriceswhileO’srepresentfallingprices.Putanotherway,X’srepres
6、entdemandandO’ssupply.ThemovementfromcolumnsofX’stoO’sandbackagaincreatespatternsthatyoumayusetomakebuyandselldecisions.Therearetwokeyitemsyouneedtoaddressbeforeyoucanbegincreatingyourownpointandfigurecharts—theboxsizeandreversalamount.Theboxsizeisbasedonthescaleyouwis
7、htouseforaparticularsecurityorindexanditrepresentsthevaluegiventoeachbox(XorO)onthechart.Itistheminimumpricechangeneededtocontinuethetrend—i.e.,toaddanXtothetopofthecolumnofX’s(ortheminimumpricedecreaseneededtoaddanOtothebottomofacolumnofO’s).Thereasonthatthisisevenani
8、ssueisbecauseareversalof$3fora$10stockismoredramatic,onadifferentscale,thana$3reversalona$100stock.Furthermore,sincep
