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1、AtmosphericEnvironment43(2009)51–63ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectAtmosphericEnvironmentjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenvEffectofclimatechangeonairqualitya,*bDanielJ.Jacob,DarrellA.WinneraSchoolofEngineeringandAppliedScience,HarvardUniversity,Cambridge,MA,USAbOf?ceofResea
2、rch&Development,U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Washington,DC,USAabstractKeywords:Airqualityisstronglydependentonweatherandisthereforesensitivetoclimatechange.RecentstudiesClimatechangehaveprovidedestimatesofthisclimateeffectthroughcorrelationsofairqualitywithmeteorologicalAirqualityvariabl
3、es,perturbationanalysesinchemicaltransportmodels(CTMs),andCTMsimulationsdrivenbyAirpollutionmeteorologygeneralcirculationmodel(GCM)simulationsof21st-centuryclimatechange.WereviewthesedifferentOzoneapproachesandtheirresults.Thefutureclimateisexpectedtobemorestagnant,duetoaweakerglobalParticula
4、temattercirculationandadecreasingfrequencyofmid-latitudecyclones.TheobservedcorrelationbetweenMercurysurfaceozoneandtemperatureinpollutedregionspointstoadetrimentaleffectofwarming.CoupledGCM–CTMstudies?ndthatclimatechangealonewillincreasesummertimesurfaceozoneinpollutedregionsby1–10ppboverthe
5、comingdecades,withthelargesteffectsinurbanareasandduringpollutionepisodes.Thisclimatepenaltymeansthatstrongeremissioncontrolswillbeneededtomeetagivenairqualitystandard.Higherwatervaporinthefutureclimateisexpectedtodecreasetheozonebackground,sothatpollutionandbackgroundozonehaveoppositesensiti
6、vitiestoclimatechange.Theeffectofclimatechangeonparticulatematter(PM)ismorecomplicatedanduncertainthanforozone.Precipitationfrequencyandmixingdepthareimportantdrivingfactorsbutprojectionsforthesevari-ablesareoftenunreliable.GCM–CTMstudies?ndthatclimatechangewillaffectPMconcentrationsinpollute
7、denvironmentsby0.1–1mgm3overthecomingdecades.Wild?resfueledbyclimatechangecouldbecomeanincreasinglyimportantPMsource.MajorissuesthatshouldbeaddressedinfutureresearchincludetheabilityofGCMstosimulateregionalairpollutionmeteorologyanditssensi
