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1、CurrentJapaneseRealEstateMarketJanuary20110ADVISORYCurrentJapaneseRealEstateMarketKPMGFASCo.,Ltd.January2011IntroductionLadiesandGentlemen,ThisreportaimstoprovideanoverviewofthecurrentJapaneserealestatemarketfromamacroperspective,aswellasaforecastofitsshort-termfuturebyanalyzinghistoricaltrend
2、sandtherelationshipswhichexistbetweencertainkeyindicatorswhichhaveinfluencedthemarket.Inthelastissue“CurrentJapaneseRealEstateMarket”(July2010),weidentifiedmarkettrendsindicatingthebottomingoutofthedownwardtrendinearly2010,hintingthattheJapaneserealestatemarketmayverywellbeonitswaytorecovery.T
3、hefirstpartofthisreportprovidesanoverviewofthedataandcurrentindicatorsthatrelateto,affect,andshowfurtherrecoveryintheJapaneserealestatemarket.Thesecondpartprovidesfactsandareasoffocuswhichmightbetakenintoaccountwheninvestorscontemplateinvestmentopportunitiesinthecurrentand/ornear-futureJapanes
4、erealestatemarket.Weidentifytheleadingindicatoroflandpricesandshowhowtwoelements,theJapaneseeconomyandrealestate,aremutuallyrelatedandhowtheyimpacttherealestatemarket.Finally,weattempttoestimatethetimingofthemarket’srecoverybyanalyzingthemovementsinthesetwoelements.Content:ExecutiveSummaryI.Si
5、gnsofMarketRecovery1.MarketSize–“SignofRecovery”2.DebtFinancing–“StabilizedBalancesandEmergenceofActiveLenders”■3.CapitalizationRate–“ShowingSignsofStabilization”4.OfficeRentandVacancy–“IndicatingVacancyRecoveryintheTokyoMarket”5.CorrelationofLandPrices,GDPGrowth,andOutstandingLoanBalances–“Cl
6、oserScrutinyofGDPGrowthandtheYen’sAppreciation”6.RecentInvestorSurvey–“AppetitesforNewInvestmentsReturn”II.CurrentFacts&Opportunities7.CMBS–“CMBSIssuanceonaPlateau”8.J-REITs–“SlowRecoveryandContinuedUndervaluation”9.AnticipationRegardingtheTimingofRecoveryinLandPricesandRealEstateTransactions–
7、“EconomicKPIsMayTellUstheTimingofRecovery”CurrentJapaneseRealEstateMarketJanuary20111ExecutiveSummaryI.SignsofMarketRecoveryWeidentifiedpositiveindicationsofrecoveryinthelastissue.Inthisissue,wetakealookatfurtherimprovementsandgrowthinc