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1、PaperpresentedatthePTRCInternationalTransportConference,Manchester,England,1993.AIRPORTAREAECONOMICDEVELOPMENTMODEL空港區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模型GlenE.Weisbrod,EconomicDevelopmentResearchGroup,Boston,MAJohnS.ReedandRoanneM.Neuwirth,CambridgeSystematics,Inc.I.INTRODUCTONANDOVERVIEW1、概述Asbusinessma
2、rketsbecomenationalandinternationalinscale,airportsareincreasinglybeingviewedascatalystsforlocaleconomicdevelopment.Theirabilitytogeneratejobsandattractnewbusinessisbeingusedinmanylocationsasajustificationforpublicinvestmentsinnewairportconstructionandexpansion.Anticipationofn
3、ewbusinessactivityalsocallsforappropriatelandplanning.Yetfewtypesofeconomicdevelopmenthavebeenaspoorlypredictedasdevelopmentaroundairports.Atsomeairports,largetractsofsurroundinglandreservedfordevelopmenthaveremainedvacantfordecades.Unforeseenrapiddevelopmentaroundotherairport
4、shassaturatedtheareaandchokedarearoadswithtraffic.Insomecases,theareaaroundanewairporthashadbothsituationsoccuroveraperiodof25years.隨著商務(wù)市場(chǎng)的全球化與國際化，機(jī)場(chǎng)逐漸被認(rèn)為是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的催化劑。機(jī)場(chǎng)能夠增加工作崗位并吸引新的企業(yè)入駐成為很多地區(qū)投資新機(jī)場(chǎng)建設(shè)或機(jī)場(chǎng)擴(kuò)建的理由。新業(yè)務(wù)活力的預(yù)期也會(huì)需要新增的土地規(guī)劃。然而，少數(shù)情況下，基礎(chǔ)周邊的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展并不如預(yù)期那樣好。在一些機(jī)場(chǎng)周邊，大塊的預(yù)留發(fā)展用地顯得空曠甚至
5、頹敗。而其他一些機(jī)場(chǎng)周邊卻迎來了意料之外的發(fā)展，不但完整的開發(fā)了土地，甚至帶來了交通的擁堵；甚至一些情況下，一個(gè)空港區(qū)的發(fā)展在25年中經(jīng)歷了這兩種情形。Thispaperisintendedtohelpexplainthesesituationsbyprovidingaframeworkforunderstandingeconomicimpactsandplanningfordevelopmentaroundneworexpandedairports.ItisbasedonstudiesbyCambridgeSystematicsofairport
6、sinEurope,JapanandNorthAmerica.Basedontheexperienceinthevicinityoftheseairports,wehaveconstructedamodelsystemforforecastingeconomicimpactandplanningforairportarealanddevelopment.Themodeldividesimpactsintermsof(以…的觀點(diǎn)，以…的方式)airportfacilityemployment,directlyrelatedbusinessactivi
7、ty,businessesattractedtothesurroundingareaandspinoffdevelopment.Thispaperdescribesthebasicframeworkforidentifyingthenatureofeconomicactivitiesoccurringineachoftheseareas,thevariablefactorsaffectingtheirmagnitude,andapplicationsofthemodelsystemforairportrelatedplanning.Commerci
8、alairportsareemphasizedhere,butgeneralaviationairportsarealso
