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1、第25卷第2期運(yùn)籌與管理Vol.25,No.22016年4月OPERATIONSRESEARCHANDMANAGEMENTSCIENCEApr.2016城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響及其渠道研究12朱越浦,黃新建(1.南昌大學(xué)管理學(xué)院,江西南昌330031;2.中國(guó)中部經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展研究中心,江西南昌330047)摘要:本文通過(guò)將定性分析與關(guān)系圖描述相結(jié)合,提出H1:城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有顯著正向促進(jìn)作用、H2:城鎮(zhèn)化可通過(guò)消費(fèi)渠道影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、H3:城鎮(zhèn)化可通過(guò)投資渠道影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、H4:城鎮(zhèn)化可通過(guò)出口渠道影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)
2、展四項(xiàng)研究假設(shè)。進(jìn)一步,根據(jù)地區(qū)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,將我國(guó)劃分為發(fā)達(dá)與欠發(fā)達(dá)兩類地區(qū)。設(shè)定經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展變量PGDP為被解釋變量,城鎮(zhèn)化變量UR、城鎮(zhèn)化與投資交互項(xiàng)變量UR×PFI、城鎮(zhèn)化與消費(fèi)交互項(xiàng)變量UR×HC和城鎮(zhèn)化與出口交互項(xiàng)變量UR×PE為被解釋變量,采用2000~2012年我國(guó)31個(gè)省市區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù)。基于單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、F檢驗(yàn)、Hausman檢驗(yàn),建立個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)模型,驗(yàn)證假設(shè)H1~H4在全國(guó)及兩類地區(qū)是否成立。結(jié)果表明:H1、H2、H3假設(shè)在全國(guó)及兩類地區(qū)均成立;H4假設(shè)僅在欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)成立?;?/p>
3、于研究結(jié)論,本文提出了相應(yīng)的啟示。關(guān)鍵詞:城鎮(zhèn)化;經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展;影響及其渠道中圖分類號(hào):F293;F832.5文章標(biāo)識(shí)碼:A文章編號(hào):1007-3221(2016)02-0268-08doi:10.12005/orms.2016.0073AnalysisoftheImpactandtheChannelofUrbanizationonEconomicDevelopment12ZHUYue-pu,HUANGXin-jian(1.NanchangUniversityManagementSchool,Nanchang33
4、0031,China;2.CenterforCentralChinaEconomic-socialDevelopment,Nanchang330047,China)Abstract:Basedonthecombinationofqualitativeanalysisanddescriptionofrelationschemawepresentfourhy-pothesis,whichareH1:urbanizationhasobviouslypositiveimpactoneconomicdevelopmen
5、t;H2:urbanizationcouldinfluenceeconomicdevelopmentviaconsumptionchannel;H3:urbanizationcouldinfluenceeconomicdevelopmentviainvestmentchannel;H4:urbanizationcouldinfluenceeconomicdevelopmentviaexportchan-nel.Furthermore,accordingtotheactualeconomicdevelopmen
6、t,Chinahasbeendividedintotwokindsofare-as-developedareaanddevelopingarea.WeseteconomicdevelopmentvariablePGDPasexplainedvariable,seturbanizationvariableUR,variableUR×PFIofinteractionofurbanizationandinvestment,variableUR×HCofinteractionofurbanizationandcons
7、umption,variableUR×PEofinteractionofurbanizationandexport,asexplainingvariablesaswell,andapplypaneldataof31provincialdistrictsfrom2000to2012.Aftertheunitroottest,thecointegrationtest,theFtestandtheHausmantest,thepaperbuildsindividualfixedeffectsmodel,andver
8、ifieshypothesisH1~H4inthewholenationandtwoareas.TheresultshowsthathypothesisH1,H2,H3istenableinthewholenationandtwoareas;hypothesisH4isonlytenableinunderdevelopedarea.Basedontheresult,thepapergivesarel