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1、Completed05Jul201703:08AMJSTDisseminated05Jul201703:15AMJSTAsiaPacificEquityResearch05July2017CorrectedNote(Seepage57fordetails)AutoSectorUpgradingSectorStancetoNeutralonSwingBackfromExcessivePessimism;UpgradingNissanandSubarutoOverweightWeupgradeourstanceontheautom
2、obilesectorfrombearishtoneutral.DespiteJapanEquityResearchlingeringconcerns,webelievesharepricesnowreflecttheriskofslowergrowthAutos&AutoPartsinkeymarketsliketheUS.Wealsoanticipateanupturninrisk/rewardonrobustACAkiraKishimotofundamentals,aswellasthepossibilityoftheU
3、Smarkethittingbottom.We(81-3)6736-8646upgradeourratingstoOverweightonNissanMotor,whichhascompellingakira.x.kishimoto@jpmorgan.comvaluationsandrisingexpectationsforitsnewmedium-termbusinessplan,aswellBloombergJPMAKISHIMOTOasonSubaru,aftertakingasecondlookatitsbri
4、skUSbusiness.WearestillJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.OverweightonSuzukiMotor.?Autosectorhitsbottom:JapaneseautomakershaveunderperformedTOPIXbyalmost20%sincethebeginningoftheyear.WebelievesectorsharepricesnowreflecttheriskofaslowdownintheUSmarket.Weanticipateaturnar
5、oundinrisk/rewardconsiderations,asinvestorconcernsseemoverblownrelativetothesolidfundamentalsoftheautomakers.Inourview,potentialcatalystsincludeahalttodeclinesinUSSAARforecastsandthestabilizationofusedcarprices.?ExpectingUSSAARtostayat16millionvehicles;off-leasesupp
6、lypressurestograduallyease:WethinkUSautosaleswillremainataround16millionunitsoverthemediumterm,consideringthereplacementcycleandgrowthtrendsinvehicleownership.Despiteconcernsaboutadeclineinusedcarprices,supplypressuresonthemarketfromusedoff-leasevehicleslooklikelyto
7、comeoffapeakafter2017,puttinglessdownwardpressureonusedcarprices.Wethinkthestabilizationofusedcarpriceswillreducetheriskofhigherlossesontheresidualvalueofleasesateachcompanyandhaveapositiveimpactonnewvehicledemand.?UpgradingNissanMotorandSubarutoOverweight:Inadditio
8、ntobriskglobalsales,NissanMotorshouldseeexpectationsgraduallyriseforitsnewmedium-termbusinessplan,includingsynergiesfromitsalliancewithMit
