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1、第25卷第5期巖石力學(xué)與工程學(xué)報(bào)Vol.25No.52006年5月ChineseJournalofRockMechanicsandEngineeringMay,2006基于混沌時(shí)序預(yù)測(cè)方法的沖擊地壓預(yù)測(cè)研究蔣金泉,李洪(山東科技大學(xué)礦山災(zāi)害預(yù)防控制重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室,山東泰安271019)摘要:沖擊地壓的預(yù)測(cè)研究通常是通過監(jiān)測(cè)對(duì)沖擊地壓的發(fā)生、發(fā)展過程比較敏感的指標(biāo)來進(jìn)行的,監(jiān)測(cè)指標(biāo)值的大小和變化規(guī)律是進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ),監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)在未來一定時(shí)期的峰值變化和走勢(shì)變化規(guī)律對(duì)于預(yù)測(cè)過程具有重要意義。首先,通過對(duì)互信息和偽
2、鄰近點(diǎn)數(shù)的計(jì)算,確定觀測(cè)序列的延遲時(shí)間和嵌入維數(shù)等相空間重構(gòu)參數(shù);然后,在對(duì)觀測(cè)序列相空間重構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用一階局域近似法和基于最大Lyapunov指數(shù)法等混沌預(yù)測(cè)方法對(duì)沖擊地壓工作面的觀測(cè)時(shí)間序列進(jìn)行數(shù)學(xué)建模,并與傳統(tǒng)的數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析;最后,用實(shí)例對(duì)沖擊危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域的電磁輻射序列及頂板下沉速度序列等進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)運(yùn)算和分析,其結(jié)果表明,運(yùn)用混沌理論的預(yù)測(cè)方法可達(dá)到較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度。關(guān)鍵詞:采礦工程;混沌;沖擊地壓;預(yù)測(cè);Lyapunov指數(shù)中圖分類號(hào):TD32文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼:A文章編號(hào):1000–691
3、5(2006)05–0889–07STUDYONROCKBURSTFORECASTWITHFORECASTMETHODBASEDONCHAOTICTIMESERIESJIANGJinquan,LIHong(KeyLaboratoryofMineDisasterPreventionandControl,ShandongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Taian,Shandong271019,China)Abstract:Theforecaststudyonrockburs
4、tiscarriedoutbymonitoringsomeindiceswhicharesensitivetothedevelopingprocessofrockburst.Thevaluesandchangingrulesofthemonitoringindicesarethefoundationstoforecastrockburst;andthechangingrulesofpeakvaluesandtrendinfutureofmonitoringdatahaveimportantmeaning
5、tothemonitoringprocess.Theforecastmodelconsidersthatthemonitoringseriesofrockburstisevokedbyrandomfactors;andthetheoryofrandomprocessesisusedtosimulatethemovementrulesofthesystem.Thedevelopingprocessofrockbursthasitsownrulesandcharacteristics.Themonitori
6、ngseriesistheexteriorbehaviorofthesystematicvariablesinthecourseofthedevelopmentofrockburst;andthetheoryofrandomprocessesisn′tadapttoforecastingthetimeseriesofrockburst.Basedonthereconstructionofphasespaceofmonitoringseries,themonitoringdataofelectromagn
7、eticemissiononworkingfaceofrockburstareforecastedbythemethodsofone-orderapproximationandLyapunovexponent.Theresultsarecomparedwithonesgainedbymathematicalstatisticsmethodandshowthatthepredictionmethodsbasedonchaotictheoryhavehigherforecastprecision.Keywo
8、rds:miningengineering;chaos;rockburst;prediction;Lyapunovexponent彈性能以突然、急劇、猛烈的形式釋放,造成圍巖1引言破壞、設(shè)備損壞和人員傷亡的礦山動(dòng)力現(xiàn)象之一。隨著開采深度的增加,沖擊地壓日益成為礦井最為沖擊地壓是礦山開采過程中聚積在煤巖體中的嚴(yán)重的自然災(zāi)害。沖擊地壓以其發(fā)生原因復(fù)雜、影收稿日期:2004–10–26;修回日期:2005–04–04基金項(xiàng)目:教育部骨干教師資助計(jì)