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1、FOCUS
2、EMPleaserefertoimportantinformation,1July2019MARDisclosureattheendofthisreportEMSTRATEGYEMFlows:PortfolioinflowspickupinJuneKEYMESSAGESEMportfolioflowmodelWeintroducedanewmodelforportfolioflowsintoLatestdatafromtheInstituteofInternationalFinanceemergin
3、gmarketsinQ42018.Sincethen,themodel’s(IIF)showsinflowstoEMstotalledUSD40.8bninJuneprojectionshaveperformedwell.2019,withinflowsintoequitiesanddebttotallingWehaveupdatedthemodelwithJune’sresultsandhaveUSD12.6bnandUSD28.2bn,respectively.Thetrendconductedanewro
4、undofconditionalprojectionsforthewasinlinewithourflowmodelprojections.nextthreemonths.TheresultsshowthatthereisroomforOurmodelsuggeststhatthereisroomforEMportfolioEMportfolioinflowstoincreasetoUSD55bnoverthenextflowstoincreasetoUSD55bnoverthenextthreethreemo
5、nths(seeFig.1-3).months.Themodel’sstatisticsarerelativelystrong,withanR2of~60%.Inaddition,allvariableshavestatisticalsignificanceThepickupininflowsinQ1andQ22019hasbeenonewithlessthan1%inconfidencelevelandnocorrelationofthedriversofourmoresupportiveEMoutlook.
6、betweeneachother.OuranalysishasshownastrongrelationshipbetweenAccordingtothelatestdatafromtheInstituteofportfolioflows(ona12-monthrollingbasis)andUSDInternationalFinance(IIF),monthlyinflowstoEMsperformanceoverthepasttwoyears.amountedtoUSD40.8bninJune.Ofthis,
7、debtinflowsWealsonoticedsignsofareversalinthedowntrendintotalledUSD28.2bn,whileequityinflowsamountedto12-monthcumulativeflows,inlinewiththeslightUSD12.6bn.weaknessoftheUSdollaronatrade-weightedbasis.Forfurtherdetailsonthemethodology:IntroducinganewmodelforEM
8、portfolioflows;flowstotheupsideFig.1-3:IIFEMportfolioflowsvsBNPParibasmodel(USDbn,Fig.3USDtrn)70EMFlowsModel3.5EMflow
9、cumulativeUSDtrnIIFEMFlowsEMflowmodel80Conditionalprojection402.86010402.120-201.40-50EMFlowsModel0.7-20IIFEMFlowsZoom-80-400.02007200920112
10、013201520172019Jan-15May-16Sep-17Jan-19200720092011201420162018Sources:Bloomberg,BNPParibas;asofJune2019GabrielGersztein,GlobalHeadofEmergingMarketsStrategy
11、BancoBNPParibasBrasilAndreDigiacomo,E
