食品通脹已終結(jié).docx

食品通脹已終結(jié).docx

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時(shí)間:2020-06-29

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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacificAsiaPacificThematicStrategyTheendoffoodinflation?Strategy

2、StrategyFigure1:TheearthwasprovidingsurplusfoodcaloriesevenbeforethecrisisSource:CreditSuisse■Caloriedemandnotimmune.Demandforcaloriesshouldbetheleastimpactedbyaneconomicdownturn,butit

3、doesgetaffected;inparticular,thetypeofcaloriesingested.Whiledemandgrowthhadalreadyfallenwithslowingpopulationgrowth,percapitagrowthhadbeenrelativelysteady.However,thiscouldbeatrisknowaspercapitaincomesstruggle:nearlyallincrementalcaloriesafter1,800kcal/daycomefrommor

4、eexpensivefats,andcaloriesfromcarbstoohavebeenswitchingfromcerealstopriciersourcessuchasmilk,fruitsandvegetables.Pricesforthesemustdeclinetosustaindemandgrowth.■Thecornucopiacontinuestoprovide.Convertingenergyfromthesuntoediblecaloriesneedslandandwater:thatbotharelim

5、itedhasbeenapersistentsourceofconcernforhumanity.However,risinginventoriesofcerealsoverthepastdecadepointtopersistentsurpluses.Acreagehasbeenshiftingtocropsneededforfats:palm,cornandsoya;goingforward,thelandthesemayneedwouldbeafifthofthesurpluslandincereals.Whilefats

6、havealargerfreshwaterfootprint,moreindustrialisationandconsolidationinmeatproduction,andgrowthofhigh-efficiencypalmoilarehelpingminimisetheimpact.■Weseefivekeyimplications:(1)lowinflation:foodisamongthemajornon-monetarysourcesofinflationandinflationexpectations;impro

7、vingfoodsupplyhashelpeddrivedowntheamplitudeandvolatilityofinflationalreadyoverthepastfewdecades;whiledisruptedsupplychainscancausesomenear-termretailpricevolatility,theone-yearoutlookforfoodinflationisweak,evenasexcessmoneysupplyraisesinflationthreats;(2)packagedfoo

8、d/alcoholmargins:brandsshouldbeabletoholdpricesevenasinputcostsdecline;(3)steadymeatdemandgrowth:surpluscalorieproductiontohelpkeepmeatpriceslow,supportingdemandgrowthwhichwouldhavecollapsedotherwise;(4)Kfertiliserdemand:fat-drivenfoodsneedmorepotashfertiliser,andles

9、sNfertiliser;and(5)shareResearchAnalystsNeelkanthMishra912267773716neelkanth.mishra@credit-suisse.comAkritiSwaroop,CFA912267773871

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