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1、SomeDevelopmentsinEconomicTheorySince1940:AnEyewitnessAccountKennethJ.ArrowDepartmentofEconomics,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,California94305;email:arrow@stanford.eduAnnu.Rev.Econ.2009.1:1–16KeyWordsFirstpublishedonlineasaReviewinAdvanceoneconometrics,generalequilibrium,un
2、certainty,dynamics,June8,2009informationTheAnnualReviewofEconomicsisonlineatecon.annualreviews.orgAbstractThisarticle’sdoi:Anypsychologistwhohasstudiedeyewitnessaccountsknowsfirstof10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.143405allhowunreliabletheyare.Ithereforesubmitthisinformal
3、accountofCopyright?2009byAnnualReviews.somedevelopmentsineconomictheorywithoutresearch,justasasetAllrightsreservedofrecollections.Itisalsonotanautobiography,norasystematicac-1941-1383/09/0904-0001$20.00countofmyownwork.Rather,Iconsiderprimarilythosedevelop-mentsineconomic
4、theorythathavehadbothgeneralinterestintheby116.230.234.123on12/09/12.Forpersonaluseonly.fieldandspecialconcernforme.Forexample,associalchoicetheoryisstillaspecializedfield,Iamnotgoingtodiscussitatall.Further,asithasturnedout,Iemphasizethedevelopmentsoftechnique,althoughto
5、Annu.Rev.Econ.2009.1:1-16.Downloadedfromwww.annualreviews.orgsomeextentIrefertosomeoftheunderlyingvisionsoftheeconomytowhichtheyareapplied.Toevaluatemyeyewitnesstestimony,Igivethereadersomeideaofmybackgroundand,inparticular,thepaththatledmetobeaneconomistandthathasinfluen
6、cedmyworkandmyperceptionofthedevelopmentofeconomicsingeneral.(AsmyfriendPaulDavidkeepsonremindingmeandtherestoftheworld,alldevel-opmentispath-dependent.)Ithenfollowupwithfourmajoraspectsofeconomicresearchinthelast60years,theperiodofmyscholarlyactivity.One,econometricmetho
7、dologyandpractice,isofsuchfunda-mentalimportancethatitcannotgounnoticed,althoughIplayednoroleinit.Withtheotherthree,generalequilibrium,dynamicprocesses,anduncertaintyandinformation,Iwasmoreintimatelyinvolved.11.SOMEPERSONALBACKGROUNDIdohavetosayafewwordsastohowIcametostud
8、yeconomics,asthisbackgroundplayssomeroleinmyrangeofinterests,andalsosomethingofthestateofeducati
