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1、9.UsingEconomicModelstoEvaluatePoliciesSummaryEconomicmodelscanhelpinunderstandingthepotentialinteractionsandinterdependenceofaprogramwithotherexistingpoliciesandindividualbehavior.Unlikereduced-formestimations,whichfocusonaone-way,directrelationshipbetweenaprograminterve
2、ntionandultimateoutcomesforthetargetedpopulation,structuralestimationapproachesexplicitlyspecifyinterrelationshipsbetweenendogenousvari-ables(suchashouseholdoutcomes)andexogenousvariablesorfactors.Structuralapproachescanhelpcreateaschematicforinterpretingpolicyeffectsfrom
3、regressions,particularlywhenmultiplefactorsareatwork.Exanteevaluations,discussedinchapter2,alsobuildeconomicmodelsthatpredictprogramimpactsamidotherfactors.Suchevaluationscanhelpreducecostsaswellbyfocusingpolicymakersattentiononareaswhereimpactsarepotentiallygreater.Theev
4、aluationscanalsoprovideaframeworkforunderstandinghowtheprogramorpolicymightoperateinadifferenteconomicenvironmentifsomeparameters(suchasratesofreturnoncapitalorotherprices)werechanged.Thischapterpresentscasestudiesofdifferentmodelingapproachesforpredictingprogrameffectsas
5、wellasforcomparingthesepredictionswithdataonoutcomesafterprogramimplementation.LearningObjectivesAftercompletingthischapter,thereaderwillbeabletodiscuss■Differencesbetweenreduced-formandstructuralestimationframeworks■Differentmodelsforevaluatingprogramsexanteandempiricals
6、trategiestocomparetheseexantepredictionswithexpostprogramoutcomesIntroductionThusfar,thediscussioninthishandbookhasfocusedonexpost,data-drivenevalua-tionsofprograms.Often,however,programsareimplementedamidseveralotherpolicychanges,whichcanalsoaffecthowparticipantsrespond.
7、Creatingaconceptualmodel127HandbookonImpactEvaluationoftheeconomicenvironmentandchoicesofthepopulationinquestioncanhelpinunderstandingthepotentialinteractionsandinterdependenceoftheprogramwithotherfactors.Atthemacroeconomiclevel,thesefactorscanincludeothereconomicorsocial
8、policychanges(seeEssama-Nssah2005),andatthehouseholdorindividuallevel,thesefactorscanincludediff