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1、confirmingpagesPART6CHAPTER"""""22OPTIONSRealOptions!Whenyouusediscountedcashflow(DCF)tovalueForthemostpartweworkwithsimplenumericalaproject,youimplicitlyassumethatyourfirmwillholdexamples.Theartandscienceofvaluingrealoptionstheprojectpassively.Inotherwords,youareignoring
2、areillustratedjustaswellwithsimplecalculationsastherealoptionsattachedtotheproject—optionscomplexones.Butwealsodescribeseveralmorethatsophisticatedmanagerscantakeadvantageof.realisticexamples,including:YoucouldsaythatDCFdoesnotreflectthevalueof?Astrategicinvestmentintheco
3、mputerbusiness.management.Managerswhoholdrealoptionsdonot?Thevaluationofanaircraftpurchaseoption.havetobepassive;theycanmakedecisionstocapitalizeongoodfortuneortomitigateloss.Theopportunity?Theoptiontodevelopcommercialrealestate.tomakesuchdecisionsclearlyaddsvaluewhenever
4、?Thedecisiontooperateormothballanoiltanker.projectoutcomesareuncertain.TheseexamplesshowhowfinancialmanagerscanvalueChapter10introducedthefourmaintypesofrealrealoptionsinreallife.Wealsoshowhowmanagerscanoptions:createrealoptions,addingvaluebyaddingflexibilityto?Theoptiont
5、oexpandiftheimmediateinvestmentthefirm’sinvestmentsandoperations.projectsucceeds.Weshouldstartwithawarning.Settingoutthepossible?Theoptiontowait(andlearn)beforeinvesting.futurechoicesthatthefirmmayencounterusuallycalls?Theoptiontoshrinkorabandonaproject.forastrongdoseofju
6、dgment.Therefore,donotexpectprecisionwhenvaluingrealoptions.Oftenmanagersdo?Theoptiontovarythemixofoutputorthefirm’snoteventrytoputafigureonthevalueoftheoption,butproductionmethods.simplydrawontheirexperiencetodecidewhetheritisChapter10gaveseveralsimpleexamplesofrealoptio
7、ns.worthpayingforadditionalflexibility.ThustheymightWealsoshowedyouhowtousedecisiontreestosetsay,“Wejustdon’tknowwhethergargleblasterswilloutpossiblefutureoutcomesanddecisions.Butwedidcatchon,butitprobablymakessensetospendanextranotshowyouhowtovaluerealoptions.Thatisourta
8、sk$200,000nowtoallowforanextraproductionlineintheinthischapter.Weapplytheconceptsandvaluationfut
