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《J.P.摩根-美股-金融業(yè)-消費(fèi)者金融2018年展望：又一回合-20171207-37頁(yè)》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫(kù)。
1、Completed07Dec201701:06AMESTDisseminated07Dec201701:07AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch07December2017CorrectedNote(Seepage35fordetails)Specialty&ConsumerFinance2018Outlook:ExtraInningsOneofWallStreet’sfavoriteclichédquestionsseemstobe“whatinningareweSpecialty&ConsumerFinancein
2、?”Inkeepingwiththatmetaphor,webelievewehaveenteredextrainningsofACRichardShaneanepicgame.Lookingdownthelineup,itispossibletoimaginethegame(1-415)315-6701continuing.Lowunemployment,nascentwagegrowth,steadyhomepricerichard.b.shane@jpmorgan.comappreciation,abenignregulatoryenvi
3、ronment,andtaxreformcreateapotentiallyBloombergJPMASHANEcompellingbackdrop(i.e.,equivalentofdeepbullpens).ButweneverwanttoMelissaWedel,CFAforgetthatonceagameisinextrainnings,itisonlyapitchfrombeingover.A(1-415)315-6763reboundinvolatility,theFedunwind,inflatedfinancialass
4、etprices,negativemelissa.wedel@jpmorgan.comsovereignyields,creditnormalizationandpoliticalchaoscanbeviewedasveteranJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCsluggersliningthebenches.NB:Notonlybigbatscanendgames;ahangingknuckleballinthe11thinningtoa.254hittermayendtheseasonintears.Withthatinmin
5、d,webelieveinvestorsshouldbegintode-riskduring2018.Wedon’tadvisegoinghomebeforethegameisover,butitisprobablynotagreattimetoorderanotherroundofdogs,ifonewantstobeatthetrafficoutofthestadiumwhenthegameends.?CreditCards–Growthmathandtimingwilllikelydrivearrayofresultsin2018.Ple
6、asereferto“DeepDive–GrowthMath”beginningonp.3fordetailedanalysisofseasoningcurvesoncreditcardprofitability.IncreaseAXPPTto$105on14.5xmultipleof2019eEPS(from$102on14.0xmultiple),drivenbyspendstrength.IncreaseSYFPTto$39(from$37)on2019EPSaccretionfromanticipatedacquisitionofPay
7、Palportfolio.Overalltoppick–COF?AutoFinance–Autocreditappearstobestabilizing.Twoyearsoftighterunderwritingandreducedsupplyofusedcarsfromhurricanes(combinedwithlaborandwagestability)suggestautoNCOsareapproachingcyclicalpeakconsistentwithourpredictionsofamoderatecycle.Increase
8、ALLYPTto$32on1.0xmultipleof2019eadj.TBV(from$29on0.9xmultiple),drivenbystab
