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1、Completed12Dec201707:14PMHKTDisseminated12Dec201708:43PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch12December2017ClientsshouldcontactrepresentativesandexecutetransactionsthroughaJ.P.Morgansubsidiaryoraffiliateintheirhomejurisdictionunlessgoverninglawpermitsotherwise.NoreallyMa,it'llbebette
2、rnextyear...TelcoConversations:AsianTelcoStrategy?WelcometoJ.P.Morgan’s“TelcoConversations”,designedtobringyouupAsianTelecommunicationstodatewithourcurrentthinking/forecastingforAsianTelcos.PleaseletusACJamesR.Sullivan,CFAknowifyouwouldlikearegularcallasacomplementtothisrepo
3、rt.(65)6882-2374?Whentunnellightsaren’ttrains:TheAsianTelcosectorhasseenmanyfalsejames.r.sullivan@jpmorgan.comdawnsinitsalmostdecade-longunderperformanceoftheregion.Atpresent,asBloombergJPMASULLIVANinmostDecembers,Streetforecaststellusthatnextyearwillbebetter,thatJ.P.Mor
4、ganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimited/J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)2017formsthebeginningofanewtrendacrossglobaltelcos.ThislightattheLimitedendofthetunnelhasbeenanonrushingtrainmostyears.MichelleWei,CFA?Forecastscapitulatingtoreality?Weseequantifiablesignsthatforecastsmay(
5、852)2800-8562finallybefactoringinourviewofthenewrealityforthesector(incrementalmichelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.comrevenuesinsufficienttofundsignificantincrementalcapex/OpEx).SectorcapexJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedappearstohavepeakedinlate2016posta50%increasefrom2008,with
6、manyVijuKGeorgeoperatorssoundingcorrectly(inourview)cautiousnoteson5Ginvestments.(91-22)6157-35972016ROICestimatesforallmajorTelcogeographiessawsignificantnegativeviju.k.george@jpmorgan.comrevisionsoverthepastthreeyears(capitulation?),while2017forecastshaveJ.P.MorganIndiaPri
7、vateLimitedbeensteadytorevisedupgloballysaveAfrica.SimilartrendscanbeseenStanleyYangacrossDuPontconstituents.(82-2)758-5712stanley.yang@jpmorgan.com?Raysoflight…andmaybethistimetheyarenotlasers!ForecaststabilityJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,postcapitulationrevisionsse
8、emsfirmestwithinAsiainKorea(toppickLGU+,SeoulBranchrecentresearchhere)andIn
