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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaHealthcare15June2017HealthCareForecastChangeJackHu,PhDLincYiuMonthlydatatracker:May2017ResearchAnalystResearchAssociate(+852)22036208(+852)22036248jack.hu@db.comlinc.yiu@db.comMonthlydatatracker:May
2、2017KeyChangesRecentdatasuggestthat:1)drugconsumptionregistered11.7%YoYgrowthCompanyTargetPriceRatinginYTD5m17vs.12%in2016;2)inpatientandoutpatienttrafficgrew4.4%and2196.HK28.50to-1.1%respectivelyin1Q17;3)governmentspendinggrowthinhealthcare30.90(HKD)
3、acceleratedto19%YoYinYTD5m17,vs.10%in2016;4)thepriceof6-APA600763.SS30.50to-droppedmoderatelywhilethatof7-ACAwasflatinMay;5)TCMrawmaterial27.20(CNY)pricescontinuedtheirupwardmovements;6)thecornpriceincreasedto600196.SS24.40to-RMB1,660/toninMay;and7)do
4、mesticvitaminCpricesremainedhighwith26.40(CNY)ASPofRMB70/kg,andtheimportedVCpricejumped16%.Source:DeutscheBankMacros:governmentspending,drugconsumption,patienttraffic,andToppickscommercialhealthcareinsuranceHengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY50.85BuyGovern
5、mentspendinggrowthinhealthcareincreasedto12%YoYinMayChinaBiologicProductsBuy2017(atRMB131bn);YTD5m17growthwas19%,vs.10%YoYin2016.(CBPO.OQ),USD109.07Meanwhile,drugconsumptiongrowthfluctuatedandrecorded14%YoYinUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD6.37BuyMay2017
6、;YTD5m17growthwas11.7%,vs.12.0%in2016and14.2%YoYinSource:DeutscheBank2015.Inpatienttrafficcontinuedtooutpaceoutpatientflow,withtheformerregisteringYoYgrowthof4.4%andthelatter1.1%in1Q17.Theinflowofhealthcareinsuranceexperienceditsfirstdeclinesince2012,
7、recording-16%YoYinApril2017,whileoutflowofhealthcareinsurancecontinuedtogrowat15%YoYinApril.6-APApricedeclined;7-ACApricewasflatinMayThepriceof6-APAdecreased6%toRMB162/kginMay2017.ASPof7-ACAwasunchangedfromthepreviousmonthatRMB335/kg.Weremindinvestors
8、thatthe7-ACAproductionofmainmanufacturersresumedinSeptember2015ata16%pricecutfromRMB630/kginJune2015.TCMrawmaterialpricessawanupwardtrendTheTCMrawmaterialpriceindexcontinuedarecentupwardtrendandclimbed1.35%MoMto1,273.6.TheASPsofhoneysuckleandi
