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1、MarketsResearch2018outlookChinaEquityStrategy2018outlook:Staybullishforqualitygrowth,G.A.R.P.investmentthemesChiefChinaEquityStrategist,MichaelTong(+852)22036167
2、michael.tong@db.comJanuary2018MichaelTong,CFA
3、(+852)22036167
4、michael.tong@db.comOutlineJanuary4,20181.201
5、7performancerecap2.Macro/liquidityoutlook3.Marketview,sectorpreferenceandstockpicks4.GreeningEnvironment5.ReformingSOEs6.Advancingmanufacturing7.PremiumizingconsumptionDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbe
6、awarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:22/01/2018
7、16:32:26GMTTHECONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDINTHEPEOPLE’SREPUBLICOFCHINA(“THEPRC”)(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCEWITHTHEAPPLICABLELAWSANDREGULATIONSOFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaStaybullishforqualitygrowth,G.A.R.P.investmentthemes?Weex
8、pectMSCIChina/HSCEItoreach110/14,000byend-18,inviewof?adecentearningsoutlook(MSCIChinaEPS+17.0%/15.5%in2018/19E)onsecularandcyclicaldrivers?expansioninmultiples(narrowingthegapwithDM)onareducedriskdiscount,and?favorableliquidityconditions?AlthoughGDPgrowthislikelytom
9、oderate,theeconomyshoulddemonstrateresilienceanddeliverbetterqualitygrowth.?WerecommendinvestorstofocusontheG.A.R.Pinvestmentthemesfor2018,i.e.Greening(environment),Advancing(manufacturing),Reforming(SOE),andPremiumizing(consumption).?WerecommendOWSoftware/Internet,C
10、onsumerDiscretion,Insurance,Healthcare,andWater/Renewables,aswellasBanks/Brokers,andUWMaterials,RealEstate,CapitalGoodsandtraditionaldefensives(Telecom/Staples).?Wehighlight20toppicksand2stockscreens.DeutscheBankMichaelTong,CFA
11、(+852)22036167
12、michael.tong@db.comMarke
13、tsResearch1January,201822/01/201815:47:28Recapofindexperformancein2017Globalequitiesperformancein2017MSCIChinasectorperformancein20
