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1、23October2017????TheFlyingDutchmanEQUITYSTRATEGYASIAIndia:Greatexpectations,smalltransformationsINDIA?Indiancompaniesareonagradualrestructuringpath,drivenHeraldvanderLinde*bybothexternalandinternaldisruptionsHeadofEquityStrategy,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandS
2、hanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedheraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hk?Identifyingindustrylifecycleskeytoselectlong-termwinners+85229966575DevendraJoshi*?WestayunderweightonthemarketintheregionalcontextEquityStrategist,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorpo
3、rationLimiteddevendrajoshi@hsbc.com.hkIndiancompaniesarereshapingbusiness.Whilemanyobserversarefocusingon+85229966592theimplementationofthegoodsandservicestax(GST)inIndiaandtheaftermathofNishuSingla*Associatedemonetisationinthecountry,wefocusoncorporatere
4、structuringinstead.BangaloreExternalandinternalthreats.Sectorssuchastelecomsarefacingdisruptionfrom*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.andReliance’sJio,pushingthekeyplayerstowardsconsolidation.TheIndianITservicesnotregistered/qualifiedpurs
5、uanttoFINRAregulationssectorfacesastructuralslowdownindemand,forcingcompaniestoreinventtheirbusinessprocesses.ForeignbrandsandonlinetravelagentshavereshuffledthepackintheIndianhotelindustry.AndIndianfast-movingconsumergoods(FMCG)isundergoingitsowntransfor
6、mationwithnewentrantPatanjali.Industrylifecycles.Aweakereconomycouldwellacceleratethisprocess.Wearguethatthiswouldbewelcome–especiallyifitenablesIndianROEstoriseintheyearsahead.Industrylifecyclesareakeytoidentifyingpotentialwinners.Short-termheadwinds.Whi
7、lecorporatetransformationsareusuallybullishforstockmarketsinthelongerterm,ourconclusionisthatthecurrentslowpaceofthesetransformationsdoesnotgiveusenoughreasonforustoberevisitingIndianequities.Earningsexpectationsaretoohigh,economicgrowthisslowing,andvalua
8、tionsarestillstretched,inourview.Marketsnowreflectthisreality–wehaveseenanotabledeclinein(foreign)mutualfunds’exposuretoIndianequities,butwebelieveitistooearlyforustochangeourstance.Thus,weremainunderweightonthemark
