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1、2January2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchStrategyU.S.EquityStrategyResearchAnalystsECONOMICSANDSTRATEGYJonathanGolub,CFA2123256239EquityStrategyNavigator–January2018jonathan.golub@credit-suisse.comPatrickPalfreyTheSurpriseBullMarketof20172123257970TheS&P500adv
2、anced19.4%in2017(21.8%withdividends),hittingall-timepatrick.palfrey@credit-suisse.comhighs62times.Growthandmomentumstrategiesdidbest,withTECH+ManishBangard,CFAcontributingover40%ofthemarket’sperformance.Historically,strongreturns2123256632tendtobefollowedbystrongret
3、urnsinthesubsequentyear.Seefigurebelow.manish.bangard@credit-suisse.comFundamentalsBehindS&P500’sAdvanceDanaNentin,CFA2125385287Aglobalsynchronizedrecoverydrovestockreturnswithforwardlookingdana.nentin@credit-suisse.comeconomicindicators(PMIs)contributingtoearningsu
4、psideacrossmarkets.EricaCidSurprisingly,wageinflationrolledoverin2017despitestrongerdemand.This,2125388148alongwithdecliningvolatility,resultedinhighermultiples.erica.cid@credit-suisse.comS&P500to3000,EPSto$155OnDecember21,weincreasedour2018markettargetandEPSestimat
5、estoreflectbettercorporateresults(primarilyinTECH+,EnergyandMaterials),apickupinGDPforecastsfortheupcomingyear,andrecenttaxchanges.Theseprojectionsimply12%upsidetostockpricesona17%increaseinEPS(roughlyhalfresultingfromtaxchanges).CalendarYearPriceReturnsFollowingStr
6、ong(18%+)Years1055<0%0%to10%>10%Note:Since1951Source:Standard&Poor’s,Haver,CreditSuisseDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseeksto
7、dobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.2January2018Insideth
8、isNavigator2017YearinReview:Whatjusthappened?!.........................................................................3-13WhatareCreditSu
