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《麥格理-菲律賓-宏觀策略-菲律賓2018年策略展望：宏觀面改善支撐更強的營利增長》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectorvaluations2018outlook:StrongerearningsPEEPSchP/BROEYield(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)growthsupportedbyabettermacroSector2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EBanks15.722.21.7812.01.4Consumer26.010.63.8014.81.4ConclusionConglomerates21.014.12.5112.51.0Property24.915.83.1313
2、.21.4?WehaveaverypositiveviewonthePhilippinesfor2018,forecastingaTelecoms13.610.92.7921.64.5Utilities15.73.92.7817.63.3significantaccelerationinearningsgrowthto15%YoYfortheyearcomparedPhilippines17.814.62.6213.71.5with10%in2017.WeseethemacrobackdropasfarmorefavourablethaninSource:MacquarieRe
3、search,December2017;pricedasrecentyears,withincreasedinvestmentspendleadingtostrongerGDPof7December2017growthof6.9%in2018asagainst2017’sestimated6.7%.WeareoverweightthePhilippines,ouronlyoverweightcallinASEAN.TopPhilippinepicksinorderof?Wehavesetayear-end2018targetforthePhilippinecomposite(P
4、COMP)preference–valuationsindexof9,500.Withupsidepotentialof16%,thistargetisdrivenbyabottom-PEEPSchP/B(x)ROEYield(x)(%)(%)(%)upapproachandwouldequatetoa2019EPERof18.3x.Thisupsidebroadly2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EmirrorsourforecastPhilippinemarketEPSgrowthof15%for2018.ALIPM20.819.23.316.81.1MEG
5、PM11.116.91.110.51.2ImpactBPIPM14.718.12.014.31.7MBTPM11.929.81.211.31.1BDOPM18.221.82.011.21.4?Improvingearningspicture.WeforecastcorporateearningsgrowthwillPGOLDPM20.412.42.513.00.6accelerateto15%YoYin2018,animprovementonour10%estimateforRRHIPM22.213.92.210.50.8MPIPM14.40.31.18.21.42017.Th
6、isreflectsanattractiveearningsbackdropbasedonconcreteSource:MacquarieResearch,December2017;pricedasfundamentalprogress(asdiscussedbelow).Weseethisgrowthasbroadof7December2017based,withallbutonesectorgeneratingatleastdouble-digitEPSgrowth.?Supportivemacrobackdrop.Thisgrowthwillbewellsupported
7、byaTopPhilippinepicksinorderofmarkedlybettermacrobackdrop,asweexpectstrongerGDPgrowthof6.9%preference–ratings,TPcomparedwith6.7%in2017EwithreliableconsumptiongrowthMktcapTPShpricecomplementedbyincreasedgovernmentandprivatesectorinvestment.WeUS$m(P)
