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1、20December2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBiotechnologyU.S.BiotechnologyResearchAnalystsSECTORFORECASTAlethiaYoung2125380640alethia.young@credit-suisse.com2018Outlook:Maybeit'sdarkestbeforedawn;ElianaMerle2125380678wethinkselectiveideaswillwor
2、keliana.merle@credit-suisse.comWeareintroducingouroutlookfor2018andtoppicks.DerekYuan,Ph.D.2123254589■Wearecautiouslyoptimisticafteravolatile2017fromafundamentalxiaoqiu.yuan@credit-suisse.comperspective,butwehavedefinitelynotgivenuponthespaceandbelie
3、veselectivenamescanworkbignextyear.Consolidation/M&Aremainsthebiggestthemeacrossourentirelargeandsmallcoverageuniverse.Webelievethattaxreformisapositivetailwindwhichcouldbringsignificantcashbackonshoreformanyofourlargecapbiotechcompanies.Webelieveind
4、ustryconsolidationisinevitablebutourcautionisdrivenbythefactthatwecan’tpredictwhenthisimportanttrendwillplayout.Weremainoptimisticwhenwelooktooursmallcompaniesandstillseesignificantinnovationwhichisatthecruxofbiotechgrowth.Ourtoppicksfor2018acrossour
5、coverageuniverseareIncyte,Vertex,Sarepta,Puma,andTesaro.■WeareupgradingBiogentoOutperformandournewTPis$385/share(upside17%).Afteracoupleofyearsofbeingneutral,wethink2018expectationslookreasonable,Spinrazacontinuestodrivefuturegrowth,earlierpipelineas
6、setsareunderappreciated,andthereisalwaystheAducanumabreadoutaround2020(wearenotbettingonaninterim).SeeBiogenNote.■WearedowngradingGileadtoNeutralandournewTPis$80/share(upside8%).Webelievethatexpectationsremainhighacrosskeybusinesseswhichmaylimitnear-
7、termupside.WethinkCAR-TYescartalaunchwillbemoreofafactorin2019fortheirbasebusiness.WebelieveHIVexpectationsarehighsowedon’tseeupsidefromsuccessofnewHIVlaunchbictegravir.Overall,weremainpositiveonthestoryinthelonger-termasthepipelineassetsindevelopmen
8、tbecomeamoredominantfactorofgrowth.SeeGileaddowngrade.■Wefavoremerginglargecaps($20-50B)asbettersourceforinvestmentideasthanourmegacapcompanies.Wehadasimilarviewin2017.Thekeyreasonswhywefavorthisspaceis1)marketstillrewardsclinicalandcommercialexecuti
