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1、[table_page]有色金屬行業(yè)深度研究報(bào)告目錄一、2017年,有色行情分化加?。轰X+鋰電材料為主線(xiàn)....................................................................................1二、鋰電材料:鈷繼續(xù)牛,鋰選龍頭,關(guān)注二線(xiàn)鈷鋰新標(biāo)的............................................................................41.1全球新能源汽車(chē)產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)爆發(fā),帶動(dòng)上游資源需求...................................
2、...............................................................41)政策篇:政策框架已基本形成,國(guó)內(nèi)新能源汽車(chē)產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。...........................................................42)銷(xiāo)量篇:全球新能源汽車(chē)迎來(lái)爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng),動(dòng)力電池產(chǎn)量或?qū)⒋蠓嵘?..............................................53)更值得注意的是,無(wú)論是政策端或是銷(xiāo)量端,三元皆為趨勢(shì)...................................
3、................................81.2鈷板塊:鈷短缺已臨,價(jià)格有望繼續(xù)上漲.......................................................................................................111)需求端:動(dòng)力電池爆發(fā)疊加三元占比提升,鈷需求將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng).............................................................132)供給端:各大鈷企紛紛減產(chǎn),全球鈷供給增速放緩.......................
4、..........................................................153)供需平衡:2018,鈷短缺來(lái)臨,鈷牛繼續(xù).................................................................................................184)庫(kù)存:海外囤貨庫(kù)存增加,國(guó)內(nèi)低價(jià)庫(kù)存加速消化........................................155)價(jià)格:成本中樞+供需緊缺,國(guó)內(nèi)鈷價(jià)上漲一觸即發(fā)..........................
5、.............186)投資邏輯:優(yōu)選高彈性鈷資源龍頭,關(guān)注外延布局的二線(xiàn)鈷鹽.............................................................211.3鋰板塊:鋰價(jià)持續(xù)高景氣,未來(lái)氫氧化鋰表現(xiàn)值得期待................................................................................241)2017碳酸鋰價(jià)格大漲,氫氧化鋰表現(xiàn)略遜............................................................
6、....................................242)未來(lái)產(chǎn)能或于2018下半年才會(huì)釋放,看好上半年碳酸鋰價(jià)格...............................................................253)中長(zhǎng)周期角度,未來(lái)更看好氫氧化鋰發(fā)展趨勢(shì).........................................................................................264、投資邏輯:繼續(xù)看好天齊鋰業(yè)、雅化集團(tuán)等...............................
7、..............................................................30三、基本金屬:價(jià)格上漲看銅,業(yè)績(jī)爆發(fā)看鋁...................................................................................................341.1銅:周期向上拐點(diǎn)已臨,關(guān)注高彈性銅業(yè)股.....