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1、Contents1.Historyandinstitutions11.1Introduction11.2HistoricalcrisesinEuropeandtheUS21.3Crisesandstockmarketcrashes51.4Currencyandtwincrises91.5Crisesindifferenteras101.6Somerecentcrises141.6.1TheScandinaviancrises141.6.2Japan151.6.3TheAsiancrisis151.6.4TheRussiancrisisandlongtermcapitalm
2、anagement(LTCM)161.6.5TheArgentinacrisisof2001–2002171.7Thecostsofcrises181.8Theoriesofcrises191.9Concludingremarks232.Time,uncertainty,andliquidity272.1Ef?cientallocationovertime272.1.1Consumptionandsaving272.1.2Production362.2Uncertainty402.2.1Contingentcommoditiesandrisksharing402.2.2A
3、ttitudestowardrisk442.2.3Insuranceandriskpooling482.2.4Portfoliochoice492.3Liquidity522.4Concludingremarks573.Intermediationandcrises583.1Theliquidityproblem593.2Marketequilibrium603.3Theef?cientsolution643.4Thebankingsolution723.5Bankruns74viiiContents3.6Equilibriumbankruns763.7Thebusine
4、sscycleviewofbankruns823.8Theglobalgamesapproachto?ndingauniqueequilibrium903.9Literaturereview943.10Concludingremarks964.Assetmarkets994.1Marketparticipation994.2Themodel1034.3Equilibrium1044.3.1Market-clearingatdate11074.3.2Portfoliochoice1094.4Cash-in-the-marketpricing1104.5Limitedpart
5、icipation1144.5.1Themodel1164.5.2Equilibrium1174.5.3Equilibriumwithfullparticipation1204.5.4Fullparticipationandasset-pricevolatility1204.5.5Limitedparticipationandasset-pricevolatility1214.5.6MultiplePareto-rankedequilibria1234.6Summary1245.Financialfragility1265.1Markets,banks,andconsum
6、ers1285.2Typesofequilibrium1325.2.1Fundamentalequilibriumwithnoaggregateuncertainty1335.2.2Aggregateuncertainty1355.2.3Sunspotequilibria1405.2.4Idiosyncraticliquidityshocksforbanks1425.2.5Equilibriumwithoutbankruptcy1445.2.6Completeversusincompletemarkets1465.3Relationtotheliterature1475.
7、4Discussion1486.Intermediationandmarkets1536.1Completemarkets1556.2Intermediationandmarkets1646.2.1Ef?cientrisksharing1656.2.2Equilibriumwithcomplete?nancialmarkets167Contentsix6.2.3Analternativeformulationofcompletemarkets1706.2.4Thegeneralcase1726.2.5Implementingt
