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1、(畢業(yè)論文)我國貨幣政策對(duì)股票市場影響的實(shí)證研究摘要我國股票市場在經(jīng)歷了2001年至2005年的四年熊市之后隨后兩年出現(xiàn)空前的大牛市股票市值增加近六倍然而2008年半年間股票市值又跌去大半面對(duì)這跌宕起伏的股票市場投資者不知所措與此同時(shí)許多學(xué)者也從各個(gè)角度對(duì)我國股票市場大幅波動(dòng)異常的原因進(jìn)行了分析隨著我國股票市場的迅速發(fā)展和不斷完善股票市場已經(jīng)成為重要的融資渠道越來越多的居民將資金投向股市股票在居民資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)中的比例持續(xù)增加股票價(jià)格與實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)之間的聯(lián)系日益緊密我國學(xué)者和貨幣政策當(dāng)局已經(jīng)在密切關(guān)注
2、貨幣政策與股票市場的相互影響問題研究我國貨幣政策對(duì)股票市場的影響具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義本文主要采取理論研究與實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的方式研究貨幣供應(yīng)量與股票價(jià)格指數(shù)有關(guān)的理論體系長短期互動(dòng)關(guān)系因果關(guān)系和相互影響運(yùn)動(dòng)采用最新的數(shù)據(jù)和比較成熟的計(jì)量模型將不同層次貨幣供應(yīng)量與上證綜合股指作為代表變量納入金融系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)及向量誤差修正模型VECM等金融計(jì)量方法對(duì)不同層次貨幣供應(yīng)量與上證綜合股票價(jià)格指數(shù)之間的相互影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析最后對(duì)實(shí)證研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行總結(jié)提出針對(duì)性的建議關(guān)鍵詞貨幣供應(yīng)量股價(jià)指數(shù)貨幣
3、政策股票市場AbstractFrom2001to2005Chinasstockmarketexperiencedafour-yearbearmarketButfrom2005to2007anunprecedentedbullmarkethadaroseThestockmarketcapitalizationincreasedbynearlysix-foldAfterthatinthefirstsixmonthsof2008thestockmarkethasfallenmorethanhalfFa
4、cedwithsuchupsanddownsofthestockmarketpeopledidn抰knowhowtodealwithitBasedonvariousanglesScholarsconclusionsaredifferentbyanalyzingthestockmarketInthisthesiswemainlystudytheeffectofChinaSmonetarypolicyonstockmarketinthetheoreticalandempiricalway．Witht
5、herapiddevelopmentofChinastockmarketthestockmarkethasbecomeallimportantchannelforfinancing．Moreandmorepeopleareinvolvedinthestockmarketandtherelationbetweenthestockpricesandrealeconomicactivitybecomemoreandmoreclose．Chinesegovernmentandpoliciesmakers
6、havepaycloseattentiontotherelationshipbetweenthemonetarypolicyandthestockmarket．Theresearchcombinestheorywithpracticeinthisthesistostudytherelevanttheoreticalsysteminteractioninshortandlong-termcausalityandmutualinfluenceabilityThelatestdataandwidely
7、usedeconometricmodelareusedinthisthesisdifferentlevelsofmoneysupplyandtheShanghaiCompositeindexareusedasrepresentativevariablesofthemonetaryandfinancialsystemfinancialmeasuressuchasADFunitroottestcointegrationtestandVectorErrorCorrectionModelVECMarea
8、ppliedtostudytheinterrelationshipbetweenmoneysupplyandtheShanghaiCompositepriceindexTheresultsofpositiveanalysisandtheeconomicsignificancearesummarizedthenspecificproposalsareputforwardKeyWordsMoneySupplyStockPriceIndexMonetaryPolicystockmarket目錄摘要ⅠA
