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1、華中科技大學博士學位論文中國短期國際資本的流動與管制研究姓名：吳昊申請學位級別：博士專業(yè)：西方經濟學指導教師：巴曙松20091031
華中科技大學博士學位論文（5）中國應轉變外匯管理模式，逐步引入價格管制。在中國現(xiàn)階段外匯占款過多的情況下，作為一種價格管制工具，URR不失為一種限制短期國際資本流入的可行的辦法。（6）中國的短期資本流入管制政策具有一定的獨立性且對限制短期資本凈流入無效，對短期資本流入應以疏導、發(fā)展資本市場吸收、促進對外投資來平衡等作為著力點，實現(xiàn)資本項目自由化是大方向。關鍵詞：短期國際資本資本流動資本管制人民幣升值預期II
華中科技大學博士
2、學位論文AbstractBasedonmacroeconomicandinternationaleconomictheory,thisdissertationfirstsummarizespreviousresearchandcalculatesChina'sshort-terminternationalcapitalflows,thenanalyzespossiblewaysofChina'sshort-terminternationalcapitalflows,buildsatheoreticalmodelonthecausesofshort-term
3、internationalcapitalflowsandcarriesonempiricaltest.Afterthat,thisdissertationsystematicallycombsthemanagementsystemandtheevolvementofregulationpolicy,andteststheeffectivenessofChina'scapitalcontrolonshort-terminternationalcapitalflowsbyempiricalanalysis.Finally,basedoncomparativea
4、ndcaseanalysis,thisdissertationproposessuggestiononhowtogoverningshort-terminternationalcapitalflowsinthepaceofcapitalaccountliberalization,providingareferenceforimprovingChina'sefficiencyofshort-terminternationalcapitalflows.Themainconclusionsofthisdissertationareasfollows:(1)Inr
5、ecentyears,short-terminternationalcapitalflowsinChinapresentsvariegate,flowhiding,increasingscale,andvolatiletrend.Ontheinfluenceofthefinancialcrisis,short-terminternationalcapitaloutflowin2008isespeciallyworthattention.(2)ExpectationofRMBexchangerateisthebasicreasonofshort-termin
6、ternationalcapitalflowinChina,whiletheimpactofassetpriceandinterestdifferencialbetweendomesticandforeignmarketsisinsignificant.So,itistopprioritytoguidethearbitrageopportunitiesandarbitrageexpectationstoreduceshort-terminternationalcapitalflows.Theshort-terminternationalcapitalinf
7、lowsmainlyattempttoarbitrageoftheRMBappreciationinthisstage.Thereforeinordertoeffectivelycontroltheillegalinflowsofnon-compliance,ChinashouldperfecttheRMBexchangerateformationmechanism,improvetheRMBexchangerateflexibility,reducepressureonRMBrevaluation,achievetrulytwo-wayfloatinga
8、tareasonableappreciationoftheRMBe
