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《美股航運(yùn)業(yè)-2018年Q2干散貨盈利預(yù)覽》由會員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、Q2/18DryBulkEarningsPreviewUpsidetoThisCycleCouldBeExtendedbySulphurRegulationsMostofthecyclicalmetricswetracksuggestthatdrybulkisroughlymid-cyclecurrently,withrecoveringnewbuildpricesnowclosetolong-termmedianlevels,resaleprices/newbuildpricesshowingmodestpremiumsforimmediatedelivery,andone-yearCap
2、esizecharterrates~$21,000perday.However,webelievetheshapeofthiscyclewillbefairlyunique.Withouttakingintoaccountthe2020sulphurregulations,wewouldhavethoughtthedrybulkcycletopotentiallypeaklaterin2019.However,webelieveslowersteamingandincreasedscrappingasaresultoftheregulationwillextendtheupcycleinto
3、2020/2021,andwedon’tbelievethishasbeenfullycapturedintodrybulkshippers’stockprices.·Neworderlevelssurprisinglylowgivensentiment.Oneofthemorebullishmetricswetrackhasbeenthefairlylowlevelofnewordersinrecentmonths.Only2.6milliondwtwasorderedinQ2(0.3%ofthefleet),andtheorderbookisnowbackdowntobelow10%.W
4、eforecastgrossfleetgrowthof3.2%in2018(2.5%netofscrapping)and3.0%in2019(1.5%netofscrapping).Furthermore,withneworderdeliverydatesnowintomid/late2020andearly2021,near-termsupplygrowthisattractivelylowevenwithoutsignificantscrapping.·NAVaccretion/dilutionanalysisaddedtoourvaluationframework.We’veadded
5、anewanalysistoourvaluationframework:ameasurementofhowmuchcashflowacompanygeneratesrelativetothenaturaldepreciationofitsfleetastheshipsage.NegativenumberssuggestthatNAVisnotbeingreplenishedfromcashflowgeneration,whilepositivenumbersindicateNAVcouldincreaseovertime.Moredetailbehindthecalculationscanb
6、efoundinthevaluationsectionsforeachstockwecover.SBLKandGOGL,ourfavoritetwostocksinthedrybulkspace,areleadersinthismetric,with29%and21%,respectively,NAVaccretionthrough2021basedonourrateforecasts.SALTismateriallylower,whichweattributetohigherG&Aexpense,ayoungerfleet(whichhasgreatervaluelossintheearl
7、yyears),andfocusonmid-sizevesselssegments.Despitethis,wemaintainourOWratingonthestockgiventhesteepdiscounttoNAV.NorthAmericaEquityResearch18July2018Table1:Selectrateforecasts$pervessel/day201820192020Cape$
