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《美股鋼材行業(yè)-美國(guó)鋼材業(yè)2018年Q2預(yù)覽：漲價(jià)潮》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫(kù)。
1、17July2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchSteelUSSteelSectorSECTORREVIEW2Q18Preview–RaiseUSPriceDeckWeremainbullishonthemediumtermfundamentalsoftheUSSteelsectorandcontinuetoviewthethesisasunderpinnedbymorethanjustSection232uplift.HRCpriceshavereached$920/tonwithsometrad
2、esashighas$940/tonbasedonchannelchecks.TheglidepathdownwillbeafunctionofUStradepolicydynamicswithNAFTAthekeybinaryoutcome,inourview,forHRCandtheEU/Asiamorecriticaltolongproducts.AslongasthetariffsremaininplaceweseetheUSmaintaininganarbspreadtoglobalinthe$275-325/tonrangefor
3、sheetproducts.■WeareincreasingoursteelpricedeckforHRCto$843/tonfor2018(YTDavgis$830/ton)and$763/tonfor2019andareraisingestimatesacrossoursteelcoveragetoaccountforournewpricedeck.WealsoincreaseourpricetargetonCLFto$11(from$9).USpricepremiumtoglobalisnowinpeakterritoryat$360/
4、stversusthelongrunmedianof$150/st.WewouldarguethatifquotasareultimatelywidelyimplementedthentheUSshouldtradeat$200-225/stpremia.Inthisreportwerunscenarioanalysisonvarioustradecaseoutcomes/arbspreadsandwhatourcoveragewouldearn/valuation.Inmostcasesweseesignificantequityvalue
5、upside.■GlidePathFunctionofTradeOutcomesinNAFTA/EU.IfandwhenbilateraltradeagreementssuchasNAFTAarefinalized,theoutcomeforsteelwillbeverydependentonwhethereitheraquotasystemisusedtoreplacetariffsorthepotentialforalltraderestrictionsinsteeltoberemoved.TheTrumpadministrationan
6、dCommerceareverycommittedtotheSection232policyandareevaluatingSection232meritsfortheUSautomotiveindustrywithapublichearingtobeheldJuly19th.WearguethatTrumpwillnotwanttolookweakonSection232andessentiallyofferafullgivebackonsteeltradetosortoutvarioustradedeals.■MarketDoesn’tS
7、eemtoCareAboutFundamentals.Section232hasclearlybeenveryaccretiveto2018cashflowbutverydilutivetovaluationmultiples.ThemarkethasshowngreaterconcernfortradewarrisksandfearthatTrumpcouldremovethepunchbowlwhenpricesarearguablyatpeak.Consequently,almostalldomesticsteelequitiesare
8、tradingatimpliedHRCpriceswellbelow$700/tonfor2019andarebeinggivenlittlecreditforFC
