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1、目錄1、行業(yè)回顧與展望.-8-1.1宏觀面回顧與展望:18年趨勢(shì)性下滑,19年下行壓力仍在........................-8-(1)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)回顧與展望..........................................................................-8-(2)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)回顧與展望........................................................................-10-1.2化工行業(yè)中觀層面回顧與展望:18年經(jīng)營(yíng)情況良好;19年供需預(yù)計(jì)維持動(dòng)態(tài)平衡,價(jià)格有
2、調(diào)整壓力..........................................................................................-17-(1)全球化工行業(yè)回顧與展望........................................................................-17-(2)國(guó)內(nèi)化工行業(yè)回顧與展望........................................................................-20-1.3原油回顧與展望.........
3、......................................................................................-31-(1)OPEC減產(chǎn)執(zhí)行超額完成、美重啟伊朗制裁助力原油價(jià)格上行.........-31-(2)美國(guó)豁免八國(guó)伊油禁運(yùn),仍希望未來(lái)該等國(guó)家減少伊油進(jìn)口.............-33-2、投資策略............................................................................................................-34
4、-2.1產(chǎn)業(yè)格局重塑的關(guān)鍵力量...........................................................................-34-萬(wàn)華化學(xué):全球聚氨酯領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)正實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展,石化與新材料業(yè)務(wù)不斷提升,向綜合服務(wù)解決方案提供商快速轉(zhuǎn)變......................................................-34-華魯恒升:成本領(lǐng)先與內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)企業(yè)之典范,近兩年大額資本開(kāi)支項(xiàng)目進(jìn)入收獲期,后續(xù)綠色化工新材料項(xiàng)目保障長(zhǎng)期成長(zhǎng).......................................
5、.......-37-揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工:菊酯、麥草畏行業(yè)龍頭,一體化程度不斷提高,新項(xiàng)目保障未來(lái)成長(zhǎng)..........................................................................................................................-39-中國(guó)巨石:成本領(lǐng)先的玻纖龍頭,新產(chǎn)能投放促成長(zhǎng)...................................-41-桐昆股份:滌綸長(zhǎng)絲產(chǎn)銷規(guī)模不斷增長(zhǎng),產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈一體化程度進(jìn)一步提高...-42-2.2需求較快增長(zhǎng)行業(yè)..............
6、.........................................................................-44-2.2.1鋰電材料:中國(guó)企業(yè)具備全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,將受益于全球范圍內(nèi)電動(dòng)汽車持續(xù)成長(zhǎng)大趨勢(shì)..........................................................................................................-44-2.2.2光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)未來(lái)成長(zhǎng)空間巨大,有望持續(xù)帶動(dòng)EVA膠膜產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展...-50-2.2.3半導(dǎo)體化學(xué)品&液晶材料:受益產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,材料國(guó)
7、產(chǎn)化空間廣闊......-55-2.2.4OLED材料:下游消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)需求強(qiáng)勁,中國(guó)廠商開(kāi)始發(fā)力..-65-2.3農(nóng)化:需求較為剛性,供給側(cè)有望持續(xù)向好............................................-67-2.3.1農(nóng)化需求較為剛性,大宗商品處于底部,刺激農(nóng)化產(chǎn)品消費(fèi).............-67-2.3.2農(nóng)藥行業(yè):環(huán)保持續(xù)高壓、行業(yè)壁壘提高助力供給側(cè)持續(xù)優(yōu)化.........-6