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1、內(nèi)容目錄引言.-5-一．政策的影響在資產(chǎn)配置決策中不可忽視.......................................................-6-1.1量化寬松（QE）推出后美林時(shí)鐘在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)明顯失效........................-6-1.2國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)受政策影響更明顯..................................................................-7-1.3政策是中泰時(shí)鐘增加的一個(gè)重要維度.........................
2、..........................-8-二．如何刻畫貨幣政策？....................................................................................-8-2.1從央行的行為刻畫貨幣寬松力度...........................................................-9-2.1.1央行貨幣投放力度..................................................
3、..........................-10-2.1.2貨幣市場(chǎng)利率...................................................................................-11-2.2從商業(yè)銀行的擴(kuò)張看信用寬松力度.....................................................-12-2.2.1常見的貨幣供應(yīng)量指標(biāo)的對(duì)比................................................
4、.........-12-2.2.2銀行表外業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模的估算.................................................................-15-2.2.3用銀行業(yè)表內(nèi)負(fù)債+表外規(guī)?？坍嬓庞脭U(kuò)張速度..............................-17-三．財(cái)政工具豐富多樣，哪些指標(biāo)具有領(lǐng)先意義？..........................................-18-3.1傳統(tǒng)財(cái)政工具：公共財(cái)政支出+政府性基金.....................
5、...................-18-3.2從政策性銀行的融資行為看財(cái)政支持力度..........................................-19-3.3從地方政府融資行為看財(cái)政支持力度.................................................-21-3.4PPP作為新型準(zhǔn)財(cái)政工具近年影響較大..............................................-21-3.5構(gòu)建財(cái)政支持力度綜合指標(biāo).....................
6、...........................................-23-四．政策與產(chǎn)出、通脹維度的關(guān)系....................................................................-24-4.1政策與產(chǎn)出.........................................................................................-24-4.2政策與通脹..........................
7、...............................................................-25-五．政策維度對(duì)債市、股市和商品的影響.........................................................-26-4.1政策維度與債市..................................................................................-26-4.2政策維度與股市.................
8、.................................................................-26-4.3政策維度與商品......................................
